Deviations and Deviation Levels

#21

That is a unique system he came up with all on his own. We left the indicator working that way at his request. He will share his chart and post trades in the room on occasion. Beyond his post there is no training on the crossovers.

#22

http://apexinvesting.net/deviation-levels/

.5 σ = 34% chance it will not break out or touch this level (66% chance it will breakout/touch this level) .7 σ = 47.6% chane it will not break out or touch this level (52.4 % chance it will breakout touch this level) 1 σ = 68% it will not break out or touch this level (32% it will breakout/touch this level) 2 σ = 95% it will not break out or touch this level (5% it will breakout/touch this level) 3 σ =99.7% it will not break out or touch of this level (0.3% it will breakout/touch this level)

Note Deviation high to low also uses these stats

#23

I only used to trade deviation levels and only one trade a day. Eventually made enough money to start risking on shorter time frame entries or trade multiple markets in one day. Deviations even to this day (several years later) are among my favorite indicators. :smile:

#24

Is there a written list of rules on how to trade based on deviation levels?

#26

Harmony there is no limit to how the levels can be used.

Here are a few post that should help you.

https://forum.apexinvesting.com/t/radical-reversal/48/7

http://apexinvesting.net/deviation-profit-target-webinar/

http://apexinvesting.net/module-11/deviations-and-deviation-level-indicators-video-11-mins/

#27

wow…im a going that direction myself…one indicator at a time

#28

Finally found the tutorial I was looking for!

#29

.5 σ = 34% chance it will not break out or touch this level (66% chance it will breakout/touch this level) .7 σ = 47.6% chane it will not break out or touch this level (52.4 % chance it will breakout touch this level) 1 σ = 68% it will not break out or touch this level (32% it will breakout/touch this level) 2 σ = 95% it will not break out or touch this level (5% it will breakout/touch this level) 3 σ =99.7% it will not break out or touch of this level (0.3% it will breakout/touch this level)

Thanks! This is what I was looking for. Right now in demo, I have working orders to buy for 72 lower than -1 dev, and sell for 28 above +1 dev in US 500. If one triggers, I don’t expect the other one to trigger.

#30

I have been working on a similar strategy for month now on the daily binary indices. I’ve found that most of the time it is hard to get a good price beyond the +1/-1 deviation levels.

#33

The market probably has to go at least to 1 deviation to get a decent price on a strike beyond 1.5. Life would be so much simpler if we could do a butterfly for like 30/70 beyond the 1.5 deviations when the market is around the previous day’s settlement. LOL!!!

#34

Me too. In order to get a grip on the way this community trades and see the market, understanding deviation levels is a MUST for me. I actually would like to use this in addition to the expected volume indicator as my sole strategy for the time being.

#35

Right now it looks like we have to wait for the market to make a significant move & then use the 2-hour binaries beyond the 1.5 deviations. Only the ES has available strikes beyond 1.5 & -1.5 on the daily contracts for the four indices. I guess I could also look at other things like gold, but I have my workspace set up for the four US indices.

#36

Been a slow week thus far. Can’t seem to find anything past the +1/-1 devs. Hopefully, this is the last of the dog days of summer.

#37

Reading implied volitility and whether we are under expected volume, at expected volume or exceeding expected volume is key when using deviation levels. In the summer months we are very unlikely to ever see moves beyond 1 deviation. Usually the .5 deviations end up acting like the 1 deviation and 1 deviations act like 1.5. Now that we are rolling into winter volitility we will see more moves beyond the 1 deviation.

#38

Finally understand the WHY of it!

#39

Hi Darrell!

These levels look as though it will help me only take the best trades and potentially weed out the ones where the odds are further against me than normal. This may have been asked and I just missed it, but how are the deviation levels calculated? Thanks!

#40

Deviation levels can be used in a variety of different ways. Trading Systems have been designed around them. Another great use is as a target for your take profits.

The formulation is owned exclusively by Apex and is copyrighted as such. Apex provides the levels each trading evening after 8 PM EST for the next days trading.

#41

Sounds good! Thank you for the response. :blush:

#42

Newbie. Thanks everyone. Good to know.

           Thanks, Darrel and BILLGRAPER
#43

Hi, Only recently did I come across the Deviation indicator, and learnt to its usefulness. Unfortunately I had to make the transition to NT8 because of NT7 issues. With that I was wondering will a NT8 version be released?