Indexes, ES,NQ,YM,TF,Dax

#1

Darrell, over the past several years I have documented the first 30min/60min, of the market open at 8:30CT. and how much the indices move. Example: the E-mini has moves an average of 6.1 points the first 30 min. this is the average for the last 4 years. This morning,7-21-14, I sole the ES binary for 1961, I used the 1% deviation level and 6.1 points from the 8:30 CT cash market open of 1966 - 6.1 points =1965.4 , the binary target was 1961. went flat at 1958. My question ? is my thinking correct using my averages and the deviation levels together? Do you think my averages can work well with my binary market opens? The averages do support the movement and the binaries do support the deviation levels . What do ya think? Thank you, Mike

#2

You mean +1, -1 or 1 deviation high to low? as there is not a 1% deviation level?

For average movement in any given time use the average hi to low indicator it will give you the current expected move high, low, and hi to low as well. As a lot has change over the years. I would not use a 4 year average.

For example we showed an expectation for 9:30 AM to 10 AM of 4.75 points and it moved 4.5 (only 1 tick off)

The hi to lo indicator calculate this for any amount of minutes on an intraday time frame ie 30, 60, 90, 120 etc…

We expect if the volume is exceeded more often than not by a lot that the market will exceed the expected move as more orders are being filled than expected during that hour or 30 minutes etc…

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So I would suggest you use the expected move hi to low indicator for that time frame versus an outdated average. There is a lot more to this indicator than averages it looks at holidays, low volume days, and high spike days and more to come up with the expected movement for any time frame.

Not sure what you mean by the averages do support the movement. Averages where off by more than a point and you have to factor in high to low not just open to high or open to low.

Also a bit confused on the binaries do support the deviations comment not sure what you mean. The binaries are a set width set number of strikes They are not updated for market conditions.

The deviation move is on a day not for 30 minutes or an hour so its from settlment to high or to low or high to low regardless of settlement (this is the purpose of the deviation indicator to measure the high to the low. If your just using deviation levels and using averages over such a long time frame your not using current market conditions and not factoring in implied volatility for high to low just levels and are really giving yourself a disadvantage.

Maybe you have found different this is just my opinion.

#3

Thanks Darrell, I have tried using my expensive DTI education with the Nadex and incorporate your education, my confusion…Signing up for sure…

#4

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