Is an Iron Condor a good idea for CL, before Inventory?


#1

I am just starting to try out Iron Condors, and I was wondering if doing Iron Condors on Cl before inventory on Wednesday, with an expiration of 230 pm is a good idea?

I tried one of these last night around 12 am eastern, and got in with possible 90 dollars profit, if it is perfectly in the middle at 230.

As of about 12pm this afternoon, I was in profit by about 22 dollars…So, is this a good idea to do on a continual basis, aiming for about 100 dollars profit, or did I just get lucky?

Here is a pic…

Here is another pic about 12:35 pm, about 2 hours before expiration,

Here is one more pic at about 1:30, one hour before expiration, and it is at this point if I am questioning, should I take the profit, or should I just hold to expiration, and see? I figure I should hold and see how it goes…

Okay, here it gets interesting, at this point there is a half hour to go to expiration, and I get nervous, cause I look at the chart, and the price was perfect a half hour ago, it was right at 60.997, and perfect is 61. I look, and the price has now gone against me by over 30 points! I look at the total price on Nadex, and the 30 points that it went against me, doesn’t matter. Check out the difference in the pic above, and the pic below, specificallly how far price has moved from perfect, till now, and the price difference!!! This is beauty!!

Okay, in the end, I pulled out right before the end of the day in Cl. It ends at the close for CL is at 230, and I was reminded by a wise trader that CL can get a bit wild right at exp, so I got out at about 12 minutes till the end. Here is a pic of when I got in last night, and when I got out today. Total made off of Iron Condor? 71 Dollars, minus fees of about $3.60. Overall, went quite well I think.

and when I got out…

So, Have a question for anyone that does this consistently, and knows, would you consider it better to get in for inventory the day before, as soon as the 230 expiration is available, so that you can get the maximum spread movement, or to get in the morning, right before the inventory comes out, like around 10:20, so that you can get higher implied volatility?

Is there a better way to get an iron condor on inventory in CL? Maybe a different expiration, or does it look like I picked the better expiration for the average inventory day?


#2

I believe the reason that the trade was still in your favor is because of premium you earned due to time decay. @darrell can confirm this.

I think most of the News Trading plans call for you to get it an hour before. Why don’t you look at past trading plans and see what was recommended on the last time this trade was called.?


#3

Yes I like Iron Condors earlier before Oil Inventory is released as premium is so inflated. That or a tight strangle right before it comes out. Or better yet a strangled Condor and do both :slight_smile: