Why can't we make $ on binary strangles nearly EVERY DAY?

#1

I think this is getting ridiculous. All I want is to clear $10 per contract on my binary strangles. Almost every single day, the US indices move pretty far between 9:30am & 10am. Is anyone out there making consistent profits from the opening bell? I think part of it is the pricing. All I want is to buy for $15 or less & sell for $85 or more. Let’s say I buy for $15 & sell for $85 (total $30 risk). If I set my TP at $43 (buy side) and $57 (sell side) I would make just over $10 after commissions. WHY isn’t this working? It seems so simple and logical that those prices should be hit almost every single day.

Am I proving my theory that the Nadex pricing is fixed? Can we REALLY make a living doing this? Someone please tell me if there’s a way to make consistent profits on one of the opening bells, either New York or London. I’m so sick of nothing working. I can’t go one direction, because the stupid thing will ALWAYS go against me! I don’t care what indicators, systems or strategies I use. You will eventually become a BILLIONAIRE if you could bet against me, because the freaking market will ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS go AGAINST ME!

There has to be a way to profit on the opening bells. The question is HOW???

#2

Well, the first mistake is thinking you control the market by what strategy you’re trying to make work. Second mistake is using the same strategy for everything. Not every 5, 20, or intraday binary has strangle trade in it. Get some more clubs in your bag. There are people posting winning trades on both the NY and London open every day here.

Post your charts with entry, exits and the reason you took the trade. There are many here who can work with that information to help you figure out why something did or didn’t work. Quit trying to figure out why the market is moving the way it’s moving. Many of your posts ask questions about why a market move happened. The old adage “Trade what you see” (backed up with high probability setups) will help. Instead of the beginner “I’ll trade what I want and bend the market to my will”, good luck, happy to take your money…

I’ve also seen a number of your post elude to the Nadex markets being fixed. True, occasionally they have platform issues, as do all exchanges, but just because you can’t make money doesn’t mean they are “fixing” the prices. Here are my results of two days of trading last week:

The trades were done in Nadex Demo. Why? because I’m still working on letting the trades come to me and following the system (I prefer SEES). Also, working on my risk management skills. Those charts were reviewed by other members of the Apex community and they provided valuable feedback. In particular, a kick in the fanny for the 9/21 trades, and a “that’s better” for the 9/22 trades. Thanks to those who are helping me for both.

There are lots of ways to profit from the markets. Some times on the opening bells, some times not. The “…HOW…” is by not doing the same strategy time after time and expecting different results. There’s another word for that… It is by getting more clubs in your bag and learning when to use each one.

#3

The problem is when they say “flat market, do a butterfly or iron condor.” I do that & the market slowly but surely keeps going in one direction & I lose. If I do a 2-hour strangle at 10:05 for a noon expiry, I might get a decent move, but it’s close to the expiry, making the prices not favorable… In other words, good move but not good enough due to time decay.

I’m trying to figure out a strategy that works consistently during normal volatile times, like the NY or London open. Right now I’m back to directional trades. I have two sets of bollinger bands. One has a 2 deviation & the other has a 3 deviation. If it pierces the 3, many times it’s a good time to trade a reversal. I want to try OTM binaries for that. I’m also looking at confirmation indicators (which I HATE, but still using) like RSI.

I always look at the NY open on the indices, mainly the US Tech 100. Here was a good trade I could’ve taken after 10am. It barely pierces the 3 deviation upper band & then falls. I’m also using Heiken Ashi candles.

I’ve been meaning to send a ticket to the Apex help desk to see if I can pay a smaller monthly fee for just the expected range indicator. That could tell me if there’s a decent move expected in my time frames.

#4

In your second image, I don’t like selling for $10.25, because that leaves almost no room for profit. I would lose those, or get out early to cut my losses when I sell that cheap. Same with buying for $91.50. I get burned on deep ITM binaries. All of my strategies now involve cheaper binaries or spreads. When I find something that works consistently, I want to be able to do 10, 20, 30 contracts. I’ll never have the $ to do that with ITMs.

#5

That’s fine, you can choose which ever contracts you want. There are many videos on the site to help with that. When you say “burned”, does that mean you’re selling at $90 and it goes to zero? If so, learn to use the stop trigger. That will help with those types of loses. Still doesn’t feel good, but the loss is recoverable and not nearly as psychologically damaging.

As far as the chart goes, no wonder you’re having a hard time. It doesn’t look like you’re even using the free Apex toolkit which would plot the deviation levels for you. If you’re not able to afford the full toolkit, at least get the membership that you can get into the Elite room with. The charts that are projected there will be better than what you’re trying to use now, and learning the systems the charts represent will greatly increase the probability of success. You’ll still want to take a screenshot of the chart you placed your trade with, mark it up, and post it for further help.

The contract sizes can be increased when you can consistently place high probability trades. They won’t all win, that’s just the way it goes. Concentrate on making good trades, not the amount of money you’re making (or losing). Get it down in demo. As Darrell says, “If you can’t make money in demo, it will be very difficult to make money live”. The Apex tools and systems are battle test to give you an edge, They go through months of testing and hardening. They work and get better with each release. I’m sure as you’ve seen on the site, there are 1000’s of comments showing this is possible.

Keep posting your charts and mark them up with your entries, exits and reason for taking the trade. It maybe a little slower to get feedback using the indicators and chart you showed posted above, but it will help develop discipline. And remember this stuff takes time and practice, it doesn’t happen over night.

#6

I actually do use the Apex deviations. Sometimes they don’t show up. Most of the time I can see them.

Selling at $90 is something I tried in demo with several strategies. If you sell at $90, you WANT it to settle at 0. In your image, you sold at $10.25, which means your profit can only go to 0 from $10.25, and that’s if it expires in the money. I get burned in demo when I do deep ITM (sell 10-15 ; buy 85-90). I wish I could get better strikes for a 70/30 butterfly. I could “leg in” to my butterflies, but then you’re depending on that every time. I want a strategy that doesn’t rely on some kind of movement every time to enter.

You wouldn’t believe how many times I have racked my brain trying to figure out a combination of binaries/spreads, different strikes, different expiry times, forex correlations, etc… to find a way to win no matter where the market goes. I refuse to believe it’s not possible, yet I haven’t found a way to do that yet. It bugs the heck out of me that I can’t quite crunch the numbers. There HAS to be some loophole in the pricing that allows for some kind of complex system to win or break even. I just haven’t quite found it yet.

*** Wait a minute! When you say you sold for $10.25, are you saying that’s what you’re paying? That would be a sell $89.75. That’s where the confusion comes from. When I used to do my figuring for my strategies, I used to write down what I pay (like SELL $80 instead of SELL $20). Now I like to notate it exactly as it is. When I see a SELL $80, I know I’m paying $20. :slight_smile: It was just easier in the beginning to notate what I was paying in both the buys & sells. I think that’s what you’re doing, right?***

#7

It’s a lot easier to learn to trade with the markets than to try and find a loophole.

No, that would be the amount I would be collecting if held to expiration and the market was at or below my strike at expiration. If I sold for $10.25 that would have been a deep ITM strike, My unchecked risk would have $89.75. However, as soon as my order is filled I activate a stop trigger so it limits my loss to around $40 if my strike is hit.

Same thing for the buying at $90.00. That’s a possible $90 dollar loss but limited to around a $40 dollar loss by using the stop trigger. At least up to the dark zone.

When you’re selling, your risk is $100 - whatever you sold it for.

When you’re buying, whatever price you buy it at is your risk.

Just say what you bought or sold at. People will do the math in their heads.

I’m trying to not do those type of trades so much and go for strikes that have a better risk/reward ratio. The only reason I can do that is because I practice with the SEES charts a lot, mark them up and get feedback.

#8

Yeah, I know how the prices work on Nadex. So you really did sell for $10.25. I don’t like to do that, because you can only make $10.25 if it expires in the money. I like going for maybe sell 20-30. I’d like to TP with a $12 profit before commissions, so I clear $10 when all is said & done. When I can do that consistently, then I would start adding contracts. 10 contracts would give me over $100 profit per trade. When you get to 20 or 30 contracts, you can take a little less profit (maybe TP at 10.50-11 profit) because you’re still just paying commissions for 10 contracts… so sell 30 contracts @ 30, TP at 19.50, you make $10.50 x 30 (315) - $18 (commissions) - bottom line is a profit of $297.

#9

My strategy worked today in demo. It pierced the 3 deviation bollinger band, the RSI was extremely oversold, and I entered with a market order. I set my take profit for $12 above my entry price. I may have been helped by a bullish medium impact report. The giant GREEN support zone was in a great spot as well. Here’s my chart:

#10

Nice. Followed your signals (or better yet, waited for your signals), picked good strikes and got paid (even if it was in demo). Good job on the chart markup also.

My trades for the day:

Also in demo, because I'm still doing stupid stuff like trades 2 and 3.
#11

Thanks, and congrats on your wins! I have actually strayed from my strategies in the past. Sometimes I see something & decide that the market is going to do something, and I end up losing. I have to learn to stick to the plan or stay out. I see you also traded the US Tech 100. I’m only looking at the four US indices on Nadex right now, and the NQ is my favorite. They all pretty much move up & down at the same time. I have studied the indices & came to the conclusion that none of them have any advantage over the others. One day one of them might have a slight advantage, and then the next day it’ll be a different one. I think I’m just going to stick with the NQ for now.

#12

Okay, I found some videos on trading ITM binaries using support & resistance. My first trade was a success, and I was only in the trade for 41 minutes! I actually like this strategy. I used to think only OTM’s, even for sup/res trades. That’s not a good strategy, because the market has to move for OTM binaries, and time decay works against you. ITM binaries, the market doesn’t have to move & time decay is in your favor! Here’s a screen shot from yesterday. I really hope I can make this strategy work long-term.

#13

I think you’re getting the hang of it :slight_smile: