Atrader2's Iron Butter Weekly Results and Tracking

#41

No you need both this example did not have it in for whatever reason but remember you need put that offset in both expected ranges hi to lo and close to close

#42

I cant seem to do this right, or its not working and i feel stupid now! Here is a plain chart with the regular exp ranges at 60min,

Ok this is a chart with it set to 420 min and 60 min offset, no matter what number I use it will not line up like your example.

#43

Robert,

do this set the offsets to zero and hit ok then when it loads recalculate the offset put that in and see what happens

#44

Robert, if you dont get a proper looking Expected range box after you have done what Creek suggestedā€¦back off your offset by 10 minute increments until the expected range box shows up. Then go and adjust it so that you only have between 1-3 bars showing inside the expected range box. Some times it takes a little finessing.

#45

I just cant get it right for some reason, i restarted ninja cleared the cache, re-installed toolkit, and tried several times, anyway one of you could do a team viewer with me for a few min?

#46

you got skype? my name is creekcourse on there I will do teamviewer for you if you give me your ID

#47

Thanks Guys

#48

atrader2, Thank you for your time and your videos. I watched your butterfly course 3 times. very informative and easy to understand.

My questions; 1- How do you get the ā€œMagnet Lines/levelsā€ on charts. You mentioned them on your IBF video 2- I see you here use 10 min and sometimes 4 min charts, does it make a difference? 3- Whats the rule of thumb in picking entry strikes? Is it basically picking them as close to Hi LO ranges? if so, then why I need the close to Close ranges plotted as well? 4- I am surprised that seems no relation between expected (close to close and Hi Lo) and deviation levels. I guess they use different formulas to calculate each. Did I get this right? 5- What Expiry do you recommend? few hours? or it is possible with couple or even 1 hour to expiry?

Thank you in Advance

#49

#50

2015-01-05_1416 - raceturtleā€™s library

The TF trade didnā€™t work out. I think I might need to pay more attention to current expected ranges along with the upcoming ones.

I also entered NQ at 2:06PM with a similar set up. It came within a tick or two of being stopped out before returning to the middle of my range. When it was getting close I set up a second trade, which did end up getting stopped out. So with fees the first NQ profited $46.20, the second lost $15.80. Total $30.40 gain. Including TF loss, $17.10 gain.

I donā€™t know whether itā€™s worth setting up multiple bflies on a single instrument, but as long as stops are properly set then I donā€™t really see there being much of a problem with doing it. Just like with everything else in trading itā€™s best to make sure that thereā€™s a reason for doing so.

-Ty

<img src=/uploads/db0876/1272/0a2e2d1bf1ba7a98.png">

#51

[quote=adnans]atrader2, Thank you for your time and your videos. I watched your butterfly course 3 times. very informative and easy to understand.

My questions; 1- How do you get the ā€œMagnet Lines/levelsā€ on charts. You mentioned them on your IBF video 2- I see you here use 10 min and sometimes 4 min charts, does it make a difference? 3- Whats the rule of thumb in picking entry strikes? Is it basically picking them as close to Hi LO ranges? if so, then why I need the close to Close ranges plotted as well? 4- I am surprised that seems no relation between expected (close to close and Hi Lo) and deviation levels. I guess they use different formulas to calculate each. Did I get this right? 5- What Expiry do you recommend? few hours? or it is possible with couple or even 1 hour to expiry?

Thank you in Advance[/quote]

1 Magnets you need to plot yourself see this video -

2 you need to use 10 min when plotting magnets thatā€™s the only reason for that, you see in the the video link above 3 You want to make sure there outside the close to close but as close to the hi to lo as possible, i see people take strikes inside the close to close thats not good! 4 Not sure how all the math works on them but i do use the dev levels when i do IBFS 20+ hours as im looking for a 1 deviations move to guard my strikes I doo not use the deviations as much when im doing shorter term ones. 5 You can them as long as 20+ hours or as little as 5 min if you want I personally dont like the 5 min its hard to get the orders in right and speeds everything up too much for me, I have been focusing on the 6pm - 3am as this is a pretty quiet time in the market.

#52

[quote=raceturtle]2015-01-05_1416 - raceturtleā€™s library

The TF trade didnā€™t work out. I think I might need to pay more attention to current expected ranges along with the upcoming ones.

I also entered NQ at 2:06PM with a similar set up. It came within a tick or two of being stopped out before returning to the middle of my range. When it was getting close I set up a second trade, which did end up getting stopped out. So with fees the first NQ profited $46.20, the second lost $15.80. Total $30.40 gain. Including TF loss, $17.10 gain.

I donā€™t know whether itā€™s worth setting up multiple bflies on a single instrument, but as long as stops are properly set then I donā€™t really see there being much of a problem with doing it. Just like with everything else in trading itā€™s best to make sure that thereā€™s a reason for doing so.

-Ty[/quote]

Ty,

I usually donā€™t set up multiple IBFS on one instrument, im am content taking a loss every now and then as long my stops are in place. I feel if you keep adding strikes that late in a trade you gonna add unnecessary risk, i say do good analysis setup your trade put your stops on and let the market do what it does. that just me though.

Also what time did you set up this trade above.

When you take the screenshots take the whole chart along with the time at the bottom so we can better understand what went down, was this TF a 20+ hour IBF?

Best, -atrader2

#53

TY - sorry i did not see this before i responded to that other post, the only thing i can say that was wrong here is that the setup was unbalanced, one strike is outside the range while the lower is just outside the close to close and thatā€™s where you got stopped out.

One other thing to note, you going to have a hard time trading the IBFS end of day on indices there is almost always a volume spike just go back and look at the charts and thereā€™s a spike in the around 9:40 at the open and then at the end of the day, I believe a strategy like boomerang is better at the end of day, you should look into the 6pm - 3am time period onthe USDCAD USDCHF and the GBPUSD way better time periods to do this.

Best, -atrader2

#54

Thanks for the replies. Some of this I started to figure out long after the fact. There was a ā€œduhā€ moment at one point. I think Iā€™m seeing where Iā€™m looking at this wrong, and what you said helps to confirm that.

I didnā€™t know that about the end of day indices. And the 6pm to 3am is a no go for me. Iā€™ll get this thing figured out one way or another.

-Ty

#55

[quote]Ok this is a chart with it set to 420 min and 60 min offset, no matter what number I use it will not line up like your example. [/quote] I got the same problem as Daytrade1 no matter what i put in ā€œperiodā€ and ā€œoffsetā€ they donā€™t get applied to the chart. maybe were loading the chart wrong from the first window of ā€œNewā€ ā€”> ā€œChartā€ etc.

#56

[quote=adnans]I got the same problem as Daytrade1 no matter what i put in ā€œperiodā€ and ā€œoffsetā€ they donā€™t get applied to the chart. maybe were loading the chart wrong from the first window of ā€œNewā€ ā€”> ā€œChartā€ etc.[/quote]

If you guys have skype I would be happy to do a screen share and show you how I do mine. There are a few little tricksā€¦mostly with the offset.

#57

Hello Everybody,

Hope you all had a good week, for me it was really a comedy of errors with how the week played out, I will list some of the stuff that happened real quick so maybe you can learn from it, I know I learned a good bit this week thatā€™s for sure!!:cool:

Well my first 3 trades of the week on Sunday night were all losers, really good way to start the week! However it was a self inflicted kinda! lol I just went in on Sunday night at 6 pm and started placing my usual 6pm - 3am IBFā€™s BUT, I neglected to check the good ole news, well I should have, there was sneaky little news release that really messed things up for my butterflies. So a good lesson donā€™t take for granted that there is hardly ever any news on a Sunday night AND ALWAYS CHECK THE NEWS!:stuck_out_tongue:

Then on the 6th we have a rouge 30 pip move at 5pm - I was like what heck is going on here 30 pips at that time is completely ODD, I know this is the first time I have seen anything like it! lol Well the best conclusion we came to on that one was Obama appointing a person to the FED, just more great gifts from Obama lol. This 30 point move caused havoc with not only my 1:30pm - 11pm EURGBP trade but all three of my 6pm - 3am trades as I set them up early that day at like 4:30:mad:

So just to be clear, NEVER take the market for granted thereā€™s always something lurking there, be prepared, and when I say that I really mean mentally, this kinda stuff can happen, although this was an extremely odd week, the oddest I have seen yet, you need to roll with punches, I really took the first 3 loses as a challenge to see if I can turn an profit on the week.

Out of the 4 weeks of my data collection this was my worst week yet, I traded a very poor 45% due to the events stated above BUT as bad as it was my bottom line after fees this week was +$11. I know thatā€™s not too great BUT if I can have my worst week ever and still be on the +$ side of things at the end of the week I feel I will be ok.

See my results posted below: (if image is too small to read some of the text, just hit ctrl + sign on your keyboard to enlarge)

1_4%20-%201_8%20IBF%20Results.png1104x550

Summary of the date above:

  • 22 total trades
  • 12 of the 22 were two wing or full IBFā€™s with a win rate of 4/8 or a very poor 33%
  • 10 one wing trades, with a win rate of 6/4 or 60%
  • I set 45 triggers or limit orders
  • 5 of the 22 trades were entered with no triggers
  • On avg I got into the top at $21.1 and got into the bottom at $79.9
  • I used stops on all my trades
  • Estimated saves by using stops $188
  • Estimated lost by using stops $373
  • Overall stops cost me $185 in losses this week, now this is the first week out of the 4 that this is the case, all of the other 3 weeks the stops saved me money, I directly relate this lose of $185 to these news events I missed on Sunday night and Obamaā€™s announcement which caused a 30+ pip move at 5pm so basically these trades got stopped out due to news spikes that usually do not occur at the times Iā€™m trading these IBFā€™s, I am still very confidant in using the stops and will continue to do so, Iā€™m ok with leaving a little money out there because the long term is where you come out ahead AND not every week is going to be like this circus week! lol
  • Got stopped out at an average price $51
  • 10 Stop outs total - 7 would have won without stops
  • $142 in exchange fees
  • 45% win rate
  • Weekly profit $11

I did want to put a quick summary of this past months or last 4 weeks of trading these IBFsā€™:

-94 total trades -Win rate 60% -Top entry avg 20 -Bottom Entry avg 80 -Stopped out 27% of the time -Stopped out on average at $52 -Months profit/loss trading 1 contract + $775

Note that these trades were placed during the holiday season with low IV, I hope to get that 60% win rate up to 65% or 70% but I am very happy to turn a profit of $775 with that kind of win rate, In addition this is the 4th week in a row with a + amount in the weekly profit and loss column!!:cool:

If you have questions please ask them.

Have a great weekend.

Best,
-atrader2

#58

Once again, thanks atrader2 for your weekly update. I too got caught up in that big move during the Nadex 5 PM - 6 PM dead zone earlier in the week and had 3 trades in play that lost. Not sure how to avoid dead zone because most of my IBFs with 11 PM and 3 AM expiration are placed prior to 5 PM. It was unusual to see that kind of move. Cost of doing business and will press on. Nonetheless, by end of the week I ended up in the black too! Have a great weekend.

#59

Hey Jeff,

Well one way to avoid it to set them up at 6pm but you may not get the pricing you want an ultimalty get less setups. What trades are you doing that exp at 11pm - from what time and what pairs?

Best, -atrader2

#60

atrader2,

Here are my dark zone trades. Set up at 4 PM, legged into all 3, made the mistake of letting 2 go for full loss, something Iā€™ve not done before and will not again. Had stops, but when Nadex re-opened it gapped down past my stopsā€¦still had opportunity to reduce losses, but didnā€™t. ā€œCould of, would of, should ofā€ā€¦ Going forward, I may have only 1 trade on through 5 PM - 6 PM and avoid having 3. Your right, the pricing is usually better before 6 PM and this was an usual move. Thanks for your help.

Expires Instr Date Set up full 1 wing triggers upper lower stops stopped comments pips fees P/L 11pm E/J 5-Jan 4PM 1 2 20 80 1 traded 5-6PM dark 60 4 -64 11pm G/J 5-Jan 4pm 1 2 80 1 traded 5-6PM dark 80 2 -82 3am E/J 5-Jan 4PM 1 2 80 1 51 traded 5-6PM dark 60 2 -31