Trading the news...who to believe?


#1

OK…

I’m new so bear with me here but I really don’t know what info to take seriously. the APEX news calendar or say…Market watch? Several times I see the market ( I’ve been studying the S&P 500 indice) go the opposite of the news in the APEX calendar. Today, the APEX calendar showed bearish unemployment info yet once the news hits, the S&P goes UP! So I go over to “market watch” and they are preaching great news! They said the unemployment situation was all rosy. The APEX calendar is pretty immediate and market watch is a bit lagging so I prefer to go with the APEX calendar if I could trust it.

Not to make this political or anything. I believe “real world” what the calendar says. I do this because when it comes to the real world, I live in it. I know the unemployment situation is worse than we get from the media because it’s all around me. I see it every day. Yet as they say, the market believes what it wants and it’s pretty easy to tell which way marketwatch leans.

A good friend who trades frequently, and quite successfully told me recently when I asked him this and he said… right now “trade with the white house”.

Thoughts on this?


#2

It doesn’t matter who you believe. All you want is for the market to move. It does not matter which way.

Just straddle a few spreads about an hour before the news comes out and you will be covered on both sides with a minimal risk. Basically using USD/JPY if there were a news announcement coming out at 2100 EST then you would buy the upper spread and sell the lower spread. Usually a large move will occur within the first few minutes to an hour after the news announcement. After you place your trades set take profit orders on each side that doubles your profit on each side plus makes back the loss on the other side.

For example if it costs $10 on the buy side and 5$ on the sell side then you will want to set a take profit order of $25 on the buy side (10+10+5) and $20 on the sell side (5+5+10) If it moves with extreme volatility on both sides you may actually profit on both sides of the trade. Be sure to stay in the trade if one side closes out.

You can also do a binary strangle (buy lower USD/JPY contract for 15 and sell upper contract for $85) with minimal risk (only $30) as both trades will be OTM. However you are expecting a large move so that is ok. Do not wait until expiration on these. Set take profit orders on these as well.

Hope this makes sense.


#3

I’m not sure what you mean by the apex calendar.

We do not post (barely ever) directional bias on news. We have a trading plan that shows we expect either a big move (up or down) or we expect a range bound move.

I’m the elite room and pit I posted commentary on nfp stating though unemployment dropped and nfp improved on new and the previous number (revision up) the us had the 2nd lowest participation rate in the workforce since January of 1978 and chop should be expected.

The bottom line is be aware of the news, know what matters and what doesn’t. Know if there is a big move or a neutral move expected and trade accordingly. If post trading news be aware of it and the results but trust the chart.

There is a calendar that we feed with actual numbers and forecast that is just analyst consensus it is not buy sell etc… it’s not apex driven just public information. We have a lot of videos on how to trade the news under news questions. Check them out there are some great lessons and strategies you can apply.

In most cases straddles and iron condors on spreads are better than binary strangles and butterflies on news I go into this in more detail in the videos.