APEX and Choppy Markets

#1

During Choppy Markets, most APEX trades eventually turn into losses, is this accurate? Is there any way to avoid this? Like just not to trade during low volume days?

#2

My question is regarding the APEX formatin that are very close to each other, should we just avoid those?

#3

Note quite sure what you mean. Would need to see an example. Maybe post a screenshot for the past 5 days of what you are watching. Sometimes showing a screenshot can clear up any misunderstandings much faster than any video.

As with MVP on choppy days most APEX pattern Entries would be voided by conflicting with the MVP

Though You are touching on an important topic i hit time and time again and that is looking at the volume as the market is driven by orders.

What I can say is that in MOST cases when the the volume is much lower than expectations - ie maybe 1 out of 5 bars is even getting close to expectations = definite low volume day. Then Yes I would not expect their to be much volume, therefore not a lot of orders, therefore not a lot of trends happening beyond about a .5 dev level or so in one direction or the other. And i do teach to use this knowledge to know what part of the APEX trading system to focus on and even what markets to focus on.

This is one of the essential reasons why the apex system is not just 1 single entry.

It is apex entries, apex add ons, apex reversals, apex mvp reversals, bmx reversals, profit poppers, and momentum scalps.

Learning the various entries you can trade in trending, reversing, swing, oscillating and yes even choppy markets.

If you have a preference for high volume markets then master the rules of say Apex Entries, MVP reversals and Momentum Scalps

Then watch multiple non-correlated markets like a energy or metal, an ag like say soybeans, an fx pair or 2 and an indice or 2 - with a combination when the markets are flat and low in volume you can focus on what is moving. One of them is almost always moving sometime several.

#4

Here is an example:

2014-06-17_1046 - arandhawa23’s library

You get valid entry and then the MVP just flips and kicks you out of the trade. On Choppy markets a lot of this occurs. IS the only way to avoid this is to look at the volume?

#5

One thing I am noticing as I looked at your chart is that when the APEX MVP formed when it had passed expected volume at (14:27) the trade made a decent size move to take profits on. But when the volume was low on the trade that you highlighted in blue it did not workout so well.

Looks to me that volume plays a key role in getting profitable APEX’s. If you look at the APEX you highlight blue compared to the APEX that formed at 14:47 you can see how volume played a role.

Would like to see what Darrell thinks about this.

#6

Good point, thanks for the input!

#7

Ok so February of 2014 on Oil say 07-14 but your rolling data so good on that.

I noticed your missing deviations. Add in expected deviation and deviation levels and load 365 days of data so you can do backtest like this as you need deviation levels.

A few things yes volume is a huge key role.

Oil on this day bounced up and down between .5 dev and settlment all day on this day.

This trade happened before 9 AM ET. Notice the CL Oil tradig ptis open at 9 AM so you entered right before the pit open session. Hence the lower volume etc… the day as a whole was extremely low volume until after about 9:45 AM for about an hour.

That is about the only tip I can give you on that one is low volume and pre pit session pre 30 minutes. Notice I also don’t trade the last 30 minutes of the pit session on oil. There are 3 losing trades on this chart (night time around 5 pm), pre pit session, and pre 30 minutes before the pit is about to close. This helps explain why i usually trade oil between 9 AM and 2 PM at the latest if i am doing intraday trading on it.

Notice there are 2 $2,000 profitable trades, and 2 $400/$500 profitable trades on the charts. (during normal hours).

Even with all trades taken your are net profitable :slight_smile:

You won’t avoid all the bad trades. The market sometimes is just going to turn etc… But steps you can do are finding ideal hours for trend trades (apex entries and apex add ons). Watch volume. And learn the "tempermant of various markets ie things i shared about oil above.

Hope this helps.

<img src=/uploads/db0876/1241/1a0ef7b1c4820c5d.png">

#8

Just my 2 cents but realistically how many trades do we need anyway, I know it easy to get greedy but several of those trades looks very profitable, for me I would have been done early, shouldn’t we have a profit target for the day somewhat?

#9

[quote=needpips]Just my 2 cents but realistically how many trades do we need anyway, I know it easy to get greedy but several of those trades looks very profitable, for me I would have been done early, shouldn’t we have a profit target for the day somewhat?[/quote]

I Agree 100% with you on that. One thing I learned this week is that there are more than enough opportunities to have profitable trades with the APEX System.

#10

Yes, I spent my weekend glued to market replay and videos, saw alot of good trades especially for it being summertime. Lets have a profitable week!