Avoid The Bus

#1

I enjoy listening to the radio show. A warning often mentioned is to be aware of news to avoid getting run over by the bus. That is good advice. This forum also has many posts on how we can sometimes ride the bus to profits on news trade straddles etc. So the events themselves as friend or foe depend on perspective and trade structure to be sure.

If we consider for this question that we are directionally trading box or binary based on APEX and that an E occurs ahead of news events, do we find that it is preferable to: 1) trade through the news event (ignore it), 2) trade now and exit before the event, 3) enter on the other side of a news events and how long afterwards if setup is still favorable, or 4) tighten a “stop position” as was covered in today’s webinar?

Going a step further, given that there are so many news events might it even be preferable to avoid trading the 15 min period (or some recommended time interval) surrounding each event, or do we find the volatility created by them is actually advantageous to APEX signal trading? Are news events (and the issues surrounding them) thus able to “trump” a valid set up?

The question is more complex than it appears on the surface as it affects not only direction but the volatility / premium that may be part of the option pricing as I am assuming we are trading binary or box spreads and not spot instruments.

#2

  1. often apex catches the news in the right direction, more often than not in my experience so you can do this - when trading spreads/binaries you are not as fearful as your risk is defined - but if trading outright futures/forex i would tighten things up - trading nadex not as concerned

  2. If your up why risk it…if trading nadex and your down close to max loss etc… have very little to lose so might as well keep going

  3. about 15 minutes to 30 minutes after news fundamental shock ceases then its back to pure technicals

  4. tighten a stop but understand on news this can be hard if you have a large profit as it can move huge faster than you can click it is hard to get a fill within the first minute after news on any market on any exchange due to volatility being exxtreme

Often the volatility works very well in conjunction with the apex signal - just look at the historical news over the past week on an apex chart and see if the apex caught it the majority of the time…again this is assuming using nadex spreads/binaries - on underlyings get out of the way 15 before/after

#3

Excellent - my feelings exactly but nice to hear the voice of experience.