Big move on the NQ

#1

Would anyone have taken the red APEX with the box around it? If so why? It was preceded by two red APEX’s that went nowhere. The NQ made a very large move down from here as the big boys sold the FANG stocks.

#2

I would of held off a little bit.

VAD E was still showing chop. Plus you are going directly into a red ICE level, which had held already twice.

Would of set an order after the -0.5 deviation level (Since it was so close to the red ICE level)

Also I believe the prior Apex pattern would have been invalid, since all the letters are basically one bar after another

#3

A lot of things where going on in your screenshot of Friday. NQ had already moved 1.31 Deviations for the day. You are going into the noon hour. Apex completed the Trend Flip to short, followed by another Apex Pattern. This 2nd pattern had Zero bars between A to P. The 3rd Apex Pattern had 3 bars between A to P. (You want at least 2 bars) P heading to e possible entry. I was looking for a entry because of Friday afternoon and 06-17 contracts are rolling to next contract 09-17. The has been evident by volume throughout the day. Also, ICE histogram had now cleared and was showing very little volume from yesterday. For these reasons…I was looking for a entry, going short, when market breaks the lower swing level. It was a nice ride. These are the reasons I entered this trade. Even if the swing breakout was False, I would have only been risking 5 ticks. Turned out to be well worth the risk.

#4

I didn’t take the trade because of the prev two failed APEX plus the NQ found support at an ICE level plus it was close to a deviation level plus I’ve been burned too many times taking trades like this. Craig do you ever find yourself suffering from ‘paralysis by analysis’? That seems to be happening to me alot lately. I’ll sit there and watch and watch and all the trades that I don’t take wouldv’e worked out nicely but then I dejcide tho take the trade and that one doesn’t work. Go figure.

#5

You will develop a few favorite trades as you improve. In the meantime do not allow yourself be sidetracked. If you have a valid entry, take the trade. Follow your Rules. By NOT taking those trades and second guessing yourself…You throw the odds right out the window. Along with your win percentage. You might just as well close your eyes and hit enter. Develop your favorite trades and be on alert for them. This is.the best advice I can give, along with reading Trading In The Zone by Mark Douglas. I still pick up tidbits and have marked my way through my copy 5 times so far.

#6

Thanks Craig.

#7

Craig I have a question for you. Is there any way to know if the market is going to make a bigger move or a smaller move? Many times I will get out of a trade with a small profit usually $60-$80 per contract. I only trade the NQ right now. If it moves fast enough so that I can at least lock that amount in I"ll try for more. Many times it will stall right around the $60-$80 profit level and I’ll get out only to see it move far beyond that level like $200- $300. This can be frustrating. Then the times where I decide to stay in and try to catch the larger moves the mkt. will slowly reverse and I’ll watch my $80 profit turn into a much smaller profit or even a loss. So to repeat my question. Is there any way to know if the market is going to make a large $200- $300 move versus a smaller move of maybe $100?

#8

The short answer is no.

The correct answer comes with knowing and understand what your Market is doing. Example. We normally expect a market to move 1 deviation TOTAL in a day. What is that amount for the day you are trading? What happened yesterday? What time of day is it? What is volume doing? and the list goes on and on. The better answer comes with knowing and understanding market movement and what is expected to happen with your market. It does not matter what Instrument. .

Then being available and alert when market moves are made.to take advantage of them. Trailing stops are a completely personal settings. They should be based on trading style and Risk Tolerance.

Stop trying to trade based on numbers. Trade based on market movement and the numbers will; come…