Big News Events Deviations

#1

When a market has a big spike or decline due to a news event is it more likely to settle outside of the +/- 1 deviation range at the end of the day?

#2

Define “big spike or decline.”

But, by definition, the probability of closing beyond +/-1DD LVL <38%

#3

The news event really does not have a impact on the probability of deviation as it is a % over time. ie over 100 days 38% will so that factors in the news.

The impact of the news, mixed not mixed, how far off it is from expectations etc… will impact the distance of the move. But even with that often the market moves right to one deviation. Remember these are not historical standard deviations or old school pivots - they are actual implied volatility based so they are how far the market expects the market to move and the market factors in news.

You can use the nt7 indicator to plot the last month of deviations on any market automatically (that we track) so you can see the effect.

#4

Thanks for the responses.

#5

I’m pretty sure its been asked but has anyone used the P3 signals consistently and been profitable? I mean as far from when you get the signal to the time that you place the trade, is the lag a problem? Do you miss out on trades?