Coming Along Nicely

S12 - Survey - Evaluate Trading Performance what did i do wrong that i should not repeat?
1

Hello,

I posted earlier about consistently losing with binaries, but now I think I’m on my way! I got Ninja Trader with the free Forex plugin; I didn’t get the futures plugin because one, I trade at night and there’s only one real index [MODERATOR EDIT - THIS IS A MISTAKE TO NOT GET FUTURES DATA YOU NEED FUTURES DATA TO GET VOLUME ON FOREX FUTURES TO USE ON SPOT FOREX]. Plus there’s some confusing stuff about having to get a trial that I’ll have to go back and review to understand.

The guy who recently posted about his extraordinary success with no experience, by simply watching the charts and trading, inspired me to not throw in the towel. But I stayed in demo.

My demo account got wiped out; (big wins, BIGGER losses)

Nadex said they’d been having problems with their platform all day; that’s why US indeces, if you might have noticed, were open well past 4:30. They also had a delay in resetting/replenishing my demo account. It only went through this morning.

So I had to go live last night. I finally got Ninja Trader setup, with the Forex plugin, and turned $70 into $200.

Then this morning I saw some stagnation with the GBP/USD and snagged another $50. Then before leaving for work this morning, I got greedy and tried the same binary (assuming it would stay below the level that expired in the money (by several points I might add!) Well, it took a 180, and I had to take a loss, putting me back at $200. Shows me to never try that again.

In fairness, I did get kind of smart about it; I went short on the increment 10 ticks up because I doubted it would go that high; it didn’t so I made out okay there. But the binary I based on my old assumption, disaster.

I’ll number my questions to make it easier, if you guys don’t mind helping me out with a little more insight.

  1. Is it common for an index/price/binary to just make a 180 like that after expiring?!

About Ninja Trader and the Forex charts,

The charts worked awesome for me. The index the feed shows seemed ahead of the Nadex indicative.

  1. Is this the case? This morning, the trade that I lost, it would sit out of the money for like 20 minutes, not moving.

  2. Why would this happen? My connection was fine.

  3. The Forex plugin doesn’t seem to have every Forex pair that Nadex uses. Am I missing something here?

  4. I’m having trouble, even seeing the chart of where things have been for the last 10 minutes or so, how do you really know where things are going to go? Especially when every 2-3 minuets something has gone back and forth 3 points?!

  5. How can any kinds of signals really tell you this?

  6. I’m a little concerned that I might have just had some dumb luck last night, though I felt like I was acting more like a real trader, being cognizant of trends, prices, and whether I should get out.

I found my binaries by using the watch list, expiring soon, even though Darrell advised against it. It was all I knew to do at the time; I need to get to learn the scanner.

How does it sounds I’m doing? Anything you would recommend as some next steps? It does feel awesome to have about 3X more in my account than I deposited last night. But I still do have some $500-$600 to make up!

Thanks again guys; I look forward to being around here for a while!

  • Jacob
2

Follow the instructions. You NEED futures data (not a plugin but a data connection). Why?? Because you need to look at real futures forex volume. You don’t want to use spot forex volume as its not real. Spot forex volume is fake its just the number of tick changes in a bar not the number of actual contracts traded. SO YOU NEED FUTURES DATA AS A FOREX SPOT TRADER OR NADEX FOREX TRADER

3
  1. Yes this is the basis of the Phase 1 piece of the boomerang strategy. But you need breakout and volume to confirm it. (need volume from futures forex to do this on forex spot)

in between 1 and 2 comments) Yes the nadex indicative is a indicative not an actual. It uses the last 25 trades average of middle 15 on futures and the last 25 non-sequential mid quotes average middle 15 on forex. So yes the underlying market will move faster. We also have an indicator for this called Clarity Price that does a similar thing to help filter out spurious price action similar to what the Nadex indicative does.

2 and 3) is this the case (think i answered above) - in the case that your OTM trade set there and lost? is the expectation it will reverse - your question is unclear please don’t build a question upon previous question references - make a new stand alone question (I’m by no means a grammar genius (but my wife is/was a English teacher) so don’t worry lol i will stick to being a good trader - but just want communication to be clear so we can help you

My assumption is that you mean if the market often reverses why did it lose - answer would be need confirmation of volume and breakout (hence the phase 1 boomerang strategy).

if your question is about the indicative i think i answered it but I’m not sure if i understand your question.

  1. I don’t know what you mean by forex plugin. Maybe you mean a forex data feed connection. A plugin is like an indicator etc… not a data feed. It has all of them but you have not added them to your list. Please take the entire course including the unit on how to add instruments to your default list :slight_smile: http://apexinvesting.net/setting-up-ninja-trader/ it will save you a lot of time and frustration

  2. I can’t answer this as i don’t know what your looking at what your talking about how your reading the markets etc… Are you doing what we teach you to do or just winging it? Winging it won’t last long term. You need a defined system based 3 things: price action, volume, and movement expectations. You need risk and profit management. You need discipline and a constant willingness to learn.

  3. If you don’t understand systems you won’t understand signals. Take some of the free courses we have on the systems.

  4. Hate to say it but yes you where lucky. You may be lucky for a night, a week, a month, even a quarter but not for a lifetime. You gotta have a systematic market theory driven method of trading.

Watch list is literally of ZERO benefit just STOP using it and start using the FREE scanner. It is 1000x more valuable. Its like comparing a hot wheels car to a real viper.

DON’T MAKE UP MONEY - you can’t revenge trade. NO matter what you made yesterday or lost yesterday that has nothing to do with today. It does not make charts move or binaries expire ITM etc… it has zero impact on the market so it should have ZERO impact on your trading decisions whether you are doing well or poorly each day each trade is its own ALWAYS

In my opinion until you have a consistent rules based system that is working for you. You should be training in demo. Its a lot more expensive to do otherwise. I promise.

[quote=jacobsr]

I’ll number my questions to make it easier, if you guys don’t mind helping me out with a little more insight.

  1. Is it common for an index/price/binary to just make a 180 like that after expiring?!

About Ninja Trader and the Forex charts,

The charts worked awesome for me. The index the feed shows seemed ahead of the Nadex indicative.

  1. Is this the case? This morning, the trade that I lost, it would sit out of the money for like 20 minutes, not moving.

  2. Why would this happen? My connection was fine.

  3. The Forex plugin doesn’t seem to have every Forex pair that Nadex uses. Am I missing something here?

  4. I’m having trouble, even seeing the chart of where things have been for the last 10 minutes or so, how do you really know where things are going to go? Especially when every 2-3 minuets something has gone back and forth 3 points?!

  5. How can any kinds of signals really tell you this?

  6. I’m a little concerned that I might have just had some dumb luck last night, though I felt like I was acting more like a real trader, being cognizant of trends, prices, and whether I should get out.

I found my binaries by using the watch list, expiring soon, even though Darrell advised against it. It was all I knew to do at the time; I need to get to learn the scanner.

How does it sounds I’m doing? Anything you would recommend as some next steps? It does feel awesome to have about 3X more in my account than I deposited last night. But I still do have some $500-$600 to make up!

Thanks again guys; I look forward to being around here for a while!

  • Jacob[/quote]
4

I apologize, by “plugin”, I meant the forex feed mentioned in the Ninja Trader setup video. I don’t recall the letters at this moment. Do you mean that those candle charts are fake? This is supposed to be a feed that you have to connect to.

5

I did not say candles anywhere. I said the volume on spot forex is not real, its a measurement of pip changes in a bar. You need forex futures contracts like 6E Futures (EUR/USD) volume when trading EUR/USD spot forex.

Take our free courses you will learn a ton. Its worth it :slight_smile:

6

I understand; you can’t just view the Forex the Forex candles/lines with FXCM (that’s what I was doing)

You need a futures feed; I’ve now got CQG installed as well, and connect to it first as the video says.

But I can’t for the life of me view trading volume for Forex.

Oh, I can open the Dome and see trading volume for indeces, but not Forex. I thought this futures feed covers Forex too.

I’ve viewed every video I can find on Apex and the emphasis seems to be on getting it setup and configured.

I’ve even googled and looked at Youtube videos on viewing Forex Data with CQG in NinjaTrader, and there are even some videos from other organizations, and again, the focus is on setting it up; some even recommend you “connect on startup”, which, from what I understand, is a no-no per Apex.

I’ve been focusing on this page for some time: http://apexinvesting.net/get-free-forex-data/

So is it IQ Feed I should be using?

With NinjaTrader, you can use the FX button which shows you a moving range of what value(s) are in the middle between a high and low, but again, no real trading volume to help you discern where it’s going to go.

Could you please point me to the proper feed I’d need to view Forex futures data in NinjaTrader?

Thanks again for bearing with me!

7

Not sure if this will help, but do you have BOTH, data feeds on? In the getting started videos it shows you how to turn on both data feeds, NTB/CQG, and then either FXCM or IQFeed. NTB is for the futures data and now they also have forex data, and FXCM/IQFeed is for Fx.

8

Yes, that’s exactly what I’m doing. I’m following the videos to the T. I first manually connect CQG, then when it’s finished connecting and I hear the chime, I do the same with FXCM.

I was advised by Darrell that I need futures data if I’m going to effectively trade forex, rather than just what a price move up and down a line. I need to see trading volumes, etc.

I know that FXCM is for Forex, and if you use that alone, all it seems to do is provide you the current readings/values of various currency ratios. You can draw charts, but it doesn’t give you futures data.

So NTB/CQG is for Futures; that’s understood. (unless you request forex data also from them 2 separate request)

So where do you get the futures data for Forex? I’m not trading indices at night. The Nikkei moves too fast for my comfort level.

So do I need IQ Feed for Forex Futures data? I didn’t see it listed in the features on the feeds page here on Apex.

Which feed do I need for effective “Spot” Forex trading?

9

Does anyone know what the feed for NinjaTrader is to get Volume on Forex Futures? If this is the only way to be successful with Forex, the feed has to be out there and I’m surprised it’s not listed in the feed descriptions.

Is no one doing this?

10

Jacob You need CQG/NTB for futures and futures forex (free) You need FXCM for spot forex (free)

IQ Feed is for forex, stocks, futures (expensive), volatility indices and more (you probably are not ready to pay for this quite yet)

3 choices

1) Add volume to the chart and open it to see it

ie open EUR/USD

open 6E to see futures

add volume to 6E to see futures on forex

so that would be two charts you would have to watch

2) or you can add 2 data series the same size - make the futures data feed line on close format and transparent - then add volume to it and assign volume to that data series 6e and put it on the blank panel.

The above 2 methods will work for eur/usd 6E , gbp/usd 6B , usd/chf 6S , usd/cad 6C, aud/usd 6A , and usd/jpy 6J, nzd/usd 6N It will not work for crosses like eur/jpy, aud/jpy, eur/gbp, nzd/jpy etc…

3) Or you can save yourself a lot of trouble and do all this automatically with a couple clicks by using our Expected volume indicator that comes in the apex toolkit (note this indicators works for all fx pairs that include any combination of (aud/cad/chf/eur/gbp/jpy/nzd/usd). It automatically knows what to pull and does all the work for you. It comes with the toolkit that is included in the p3 or elite membership.

Link to short video on indicator: http://apexinvesting.net/forum/expected-volume-indicator-199/expected-volume-indicator-1218.html#.U309zvmeZcY

11

Thanks Darrell! I did just that. I’ve tried both the side-by-side charts and they seem to work well enough. Yeah, I’m definitely looking at the actual moving value of the currency on one side, and futures on the other!

I tried the two data-sets at the time, and ended up with a top and bottom chart; I used 10 minute charts like the video recommends, but the regular Forex chart (lower) suddenly had 10 candles spread out. --don’t know what that’s about.

What do you mean by make the data feed line on close format and transparent? This sounds like a visual setting to get the charts to “overlap” with their lines. Sorry to be so elementary about this. Sometimes I feel like the manual for NinjaTrader should be like a two inch thick hardcover book!

I’m planning to subscribe to P3 signals soon and take advantage of the 14 day trials, I just don’t want to burn out my 2 weeks in demo, but my intention would be to stay on after. I just want to get the most bang up front by joining.

I wasn’t sure if I can ask this here or if there’s a special forum for P3-features related questions, but do you hold live webinars regularly telling members what to trade? I believe something like that was referred to as “Core Trades”?

Thanks again! And look forward to hearing from you soon.

Jacob

12

You would not use 10 minute charts for the elite method that is for a different system not sure where your getting that from. 10 minutes are for magnet pricing. I use 10 minute bars on magnet pricing template for this is in the toolkit. I use 5 minute bars usually for spike striker which track 5, 10 and 15 minute volume spikes and alerts you (template in toolkit with automated indicator) 4 minute for boomerangs etc… - also a template for that in toolkit. Im not sure what your backtesting exactly.

You would need 6E to have the same tick size at EUR/USD so when you add the two data series make sure 6E is also set to diagnostic bars (same tick size your using on spot fx - ie if using 6 on eur/usd use 6 on 6e and make sure the session template on both EUR/USd and 6e in the data series section is set to default 24x7.

For transparency you can setup the color of the bars to be transparent versus red and green ie on 6e and just put volume on the same panel. Agian the indicator is a lot easier to use than doing all this and if you change instruments bar size time frame etc… you have to start all over.

I understand not wanting to burn a trial. But understand that you are ot just paying for a signal service etc… your paying for education that is the main point. The education and the tools and the systems to empower you to trade. You may demo for 1 day or for 4 months. Demo as long as it takes but make sure your learnig the correct method (practice doe snot make perfect - perfect practice makes perfect). So many people wait to signup not wanting to “burn a trial” and end up costing them a lot more due to the slower learning curve and the opportunity lost.

P3 is a Systems and Signals service.

We have 2 trade rooms that come with P3

Core Room: One is for questions about the core trade. This is a baby step getting started trade that is basically 1 trade a day showing you how to buy or sell to enter. How to set a take profit when exiting a buy or sell. How to adjust an order. How to use the platform etc… This signal is sent out via text message via twitter and also through desktop notification using twitter notifer and tweet deck (don’t worry you don’t have to tweet a thing we just use the app to make it free and easy to text). If you have questions about this trade you can ask in the core signal room. But you will move past this soon as I said its just a getting started trade its not about mastering trading.

Nadex Trading Pit: trades are called out night and day just depending on what traders are active and Q&A happens regularly on a variety of the systems.

We include p3 systems - listed under the signal menu and those systems and more are traded in the nadex trading pit chat room where traders call out trades. You don’t need to be spoon fed as we teach you step by step how to do the trades and see them and pick the contracts right on the chart. Its all laid out. We have a forum as well for multiple systems and questions that are included with P3

Elite includes everything P3 does (except core signals) and also includes the elite trading method and elite trade room.

13

Hi Darrell,

Thanks again for getting me in the right direction with Futures on Forex.

When I started using the dual futures charts, things were working out well; I originally used the EUR/USD like you said, the future chart stayed just a few ticks off from the actual indicative, as expected to allow me to exit a couple positions ITM, pulling some profits.

But then I started having problems.

  1. For one, I tried the USD/JPY and 6J but the Y axis numbers were different. The USD/JPY showed a typical indicative index. The 6J chart showed an very small decimal from top to bottom (millionths?, ten-millionths?)

This wasn’t the case with the USD/GBP or USD/EUR, which I tried earlier. Those were like the first I described. Am I missing something here?

  1. I’m unclear what you mean by “Adding volume” Does adding volume to a chart mean selecting a data-set you’re using to construct a chart? I also figured it meant some way of simulating trading volume that would be applied to the given conditions, but I couldn’t find a function to do that. How exactly do you “add volume”?

  2. While analyzing the USD/EUR, both charts would update automatically. The indices would climb and fall by themselves. When I tried the USD/GBP, I found that they stayed stagnant, then when I clicked “update historical data”, both charts suddenly moved up.

Isn’t this supposed to be automatic? I wasn’t watching the Nadex indicative index while I had those charts, so by the time I realized my charts were not updating, the actual index had swung back so far I was OTM that never recovered, and I had to get out and just take a loss while I still could. How do you enable automatic updating?

  1. When you notice that the futures chart and index chart are the same, what does that tell you? Things are sitting flat? That has a lot to do with why I thought I’d be ITM with the USD/GBP.
14
  1. Yes the issue is USD/JPY quotes opposite on CME JPY/USD: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/japanese-yen_contract_specifications.html

Again our indicator takes care of all this for you so its going to just be move complex and advanced maybe don’t watch usd/jpy if its confusing till you can use the indicator to make it easier.

You mean GBP/USD (versus USD/GBP)

(not important but so you don’t confuse nadex indicative with the term indicative) Futures are not an indicative. Futures charts have carry spot interest rollover built in whereas forex spot does not and that is the difference for price. Nadex indicative is a average pricing model covered in the basic nadex videos under education.

(watch the into to forex under education into to markets to learn more about this carry spot rollover - not important for trading nadex but just in case you want to know more)

  1. right click chart - indicator - scroll down to VOL - click add click ok

Volume is a indicator there are several of them - one is title VOL.

Please go to education - ninjatrader and watch the basic vidoes on how to use ninjatrader to get you going on basics of the charting platform. Also there is a help guide in ninja trader under help. To add a indicator right click on a chart click indicator choose the indicator. From there you can say what panel you want it on change settings - like update on bar close true/false (false means update live). etc…

  1. again its EUR/USD not USD/EUR very different one is quoting is Euros quoted in dollars and one is dollars quoted in euros. Same on GBP/USD not USD/GBP.

If you connected to futures FIRST, and forex SECOND. and DID NOT connect on start up as instructed in course. Sorry caps is not yelling just emphasizing here. Should be automatic if you have a live forex data feed and have walked through the course setting it up correctly. If still having issues then contact the data vendor (ie fxcm directly for tech support on your data feed - my guess is your not connected or something but I do not provide data feed tech support as I don’t provide the data). I do show you how to set it up. I see you completed that course i recommend you go back and review it if needed.But most likely you have auto connect on start up and are not connecting in the right order

  1. Not sure what you mean by index chart please be more specific. - my guess is you mean indicative - it tells you nothing they are the same - not sure what your looking for here - Watch the education nadex - getting started and other nadex videos to learn how settlement works to see if ITM as of expiration - you should not be holding to expiration - please watch all the basic education videos under nadex so you have these things covered they will save you a lot of money in mistakes and a lot of time in demo before live :slight_smile:

Again GBP/USD not USD/GBP (sorry to redo but just trying to make sure you got it).

[quote=jacobsr]Hi Darrell,

Thanks again for getting me in the right direction with Futures on Forex.

When I started using the dual futures charts, things were working out well; I originally used the EUR/USD like you said, the future chart stayed just a few ticks off from the actual indicative, as expected to allow me to exit a couple positions ITM, pulling some profits.

But then I started having problems.

  1. For one, I tried the USD/JPY and 6J but the Y axis numbers were different. The USD/JPY showed a typical indicative index. The 6J chart showed an very small decimal from top to bottom (millionths?, ten-millionths?)

This wasn’t the case with the USD/GBP or USD/EUR, which I tried earlier. Those were like the first I described. Am I missing something here?

  1. I’m unclear what you mean by “Adding volume” Does adding volume to a chart mean selecting a data-set you’re using to construct a chart? I also figured it meant some way of simulating trading volume that would be applied to the given conditions, but I couldn’t find a function to do that. How exactly do you “add volume”?

  2. While analyzing the USD/EUR, both charts would update automatically. The indices would climb and fall by themselves. When I tried the USD/GBP, I found that they stayed stagnant, then when I clicked “update historical data”, both charts suddenly moved up.

Isn’t this supposed to be automatic? I wasn’t watching the Nadex indicative index while I had those charts, so by the time I realized my charts were not updating, the actual index had swung back so far I was OTM that never recovered, and I had to get out and just take a loss while I still could. How do you enable automatic updating?

  1. When you notice that the futures chart and index chart are the same, what does that tell you? Things are sitting flat? That has a lot to do with why I thought I’d be ITM with the USD/GBP.[/quote]