Confused on Pricing!


Maybe someone can help me here. I have seen variances in pricing that is just throwing me for a loop, and in fact, costing me money! ugh. What I am running into, is on an hourly forex, watching the price go down, yet the cost goes up. And vice versa. For example, yesterday about noon pacific time, i think the aud/jpy expir >94.95 itm. It was about 95.10. As the price went up even higher, to 95.15, the cost of the option actually fell…and fell alot by at least 20. Conversely, as it fell down to 95, the cost of the option went up. I have seen this happen a few time time. And end up hitting my stop loss. THOUGHTS??? Thanks for any help.


I would be glad to help but honestly this is incredibly hard to follow. You referencing underlying price but not binary price. back and forth with interchangeable its… im guilty of it also :slight_smile:

I have no idea what your system is but i think here your just trying to get how the binary price changes…

I am sure there is a simple misunderstanding but i don’t have enough info from you yet to help you clear it up. (as nadex is in eastern time i recommend also you set your charts to Eastern time - and reference easter time - we have traders everywhere and this will make it simple to keep everyone on the same page for clarity) I don’t live in ET but i have my charts set to ET and my computer even so everything lines up.

ie watching the price go down but the cost goes up

then… reference a binary - but then state it was about 95.10 (did you mean aud/jpy or binary what is it) price went up higher - guessing you mean aud/jpy here - then you say the cost of the optoin fell by at least 20 - - but then you say it fell down to 95 - what did aud/jpy - im assuming yes - as you say the cost of the option went up - which is normal if you are selling the option

so my assumption here is…

price goes down means the AUD/JPY -

Cost goes up means the binary strike ie the AUD/JPY > 94.95 12 PM strike

if you are short - then yes the cost would go up as it gets deeper in the money

Are you trading live? If so stop until you get down how a binary price changes and move to demo.

Check our binary scanner. Use the Simulation price you can enter the underlying price and see the price change in the binary and its risk/reward. Its free to use and you should be using it to trade its 100x easier (looks intimidating but its not just take a little practice)

These articles i wrote may help you get your head wrapped around it

Benzinga | Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals

Benzinga | Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals

Benzinga | Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals

Benzinga | Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals

Also look at the education - nadex - binaries section for videos on the basics of binaries.


Sorry for the confusion Darrell, like most things, Im guessing my explanation sounded better in my head (oh those darn voices!) Ok, let me try to break it down better. To begin, I am on a demo acct (after losing a lot of real money). Expensive teacher! Ill be on demo til i get this down better. I will refer to eastern time. So for example, this morning, I was looking at the aud/jpy binary >94.71 strike, expiring at 11:00am. At 10:30 am, the indicative index showed that it was at 94.78, so it was in the money. The offer at this time was 65.00. It started to rise and went to 94.80, 94.81, 94.83 etc over the next 15-20 minutes. Wierd thing, as it was rising, going further in the money, the offer price actually fell. It did go from 65, up to about 70, then down to 53. How can it become more valuable, yet cost less? Then, to get more odd, it went up to 94.86 and turned around and started to fall. The offer price went down and then up again. So as it fell, and went down to meet the strike price of 94.71, I would expect the price to be around 50 but it jumped up to 55-60. I have seen this scenario several times. There is no delay on my computer or chrome. Hope this helps. thank you


a) Okay so your saying it was ITM - but you have to add a direction to that

Every strike is both ITM and OTM - which one it is determined which direction you are trading.

If the market is at 94.78 and your strike is 94.71 - then it was ITM on a buy - and OTM on a sell

B) 10:30 AUD/jpy at 94.78 (Why looking at indicative look at the real chart not the indicative -nadex charts are backup dont use them to trade on)

the AUD/JPY > 94.71 11:00 AM ok offer was at 65 - so now i can assume buying so that is why saying ITM

It started to rise - assuming AUD/jPY - please replace its going forward in post will make “it” a lot easier :slight_smile: (yes it can be deducted but … lets make “it” easy :slight_smile: - basically it works if your talking about one thing - but if you are going back and forth between aud/jpy and aud/jpy binary it does not work Your problem on this is you are looking at the indicative - look at the real price - on forex the indicative is based on the last 25 mid prices average middle 15 and does not include sequential identical quotes in the calculation - the pricing of the binary is not on the indicative its on the underlying -the settlement is based on the indicative.

Your not seeing the AUD/JPY movement correlate as your looking at indicative of it not the actual aud/jpy itself

Also other reasons - bid offer sizes taken out - implied volatility changes - etc… but im 99.% sure that your reason is your not looking at a real chart.