Feedback on mid term spread trades

#1

Last night it occurred to me that if you could get into say the 11PM - 7AM Forex spreads on Nadex at a risk of lets say $15 per side (or less) or $30 total risk, you stand a good statistical chance of pulling in a profit each day. What brought me to this is mainly my schedule and the fact that I just do not feel comfortable enough yet with the shorter term binaries not to mention that the night time binaries seem to be a little more difficult due to considerably lower volume than you might find during the peak trading hours.

I am sure this is not a new idea, but has anyone ever tried this? If it works, and statistically speaking it appears that it would, this would be ideal for those who work the 7AM to god knows when at night grind. Given the pairs with spreads available at that time, some would likely be statistically more profitable than others, but if 15 points of movement either way would give you break even, it at least sounds like a good idea on paper.

#2

What you are talking about is a straddle

The math does not line up…

Each side say $15.00 - that is a 30.00 risk - meaning you need more than a 30 pip movement

It will take 30 pips just to get to breakeven on a straddle that cost $30. Another 30 to get to 1:1 so 60 ticks of movement. Also it can retrace to you need a take profit set. More often the market is quiter like you state.

You may want to look at a neutral strategy called the iron condor for spreads… or iron butterflies for binaries…(use stop trigger to help manage some of the risk). But if you want the stats and probavility in your favor a neutral strategy is more likely to win out over a breakout strategy when volume is low etc…

I teach it here: http://apexinvesting.net/news-trading/ (scroll down a bit to see the videos)

And have stats on news there as well most are for iron condors.

And have a calculator for you here: http://apexinvesting.net/straddlecondor08252014/straddlecondor08252014.htm

The expected range set on 8 hours and to start at the desired time (so adjust offset to match up) would let you know each night wath the expected move is for ie the 8 hour period on the fx pair your looking at for that specific day of the week.

Hope this helps.