[quote=chazw661]Hey Rich, you are spot on with your comments.
Without the two trades over the holidays the win percentage would be higher yet. With the EuroUSD this is a really high probability trade…which is why I am so desperate to get the risk ratio back down to something more manageable as we all know trades loose from time to time. And yes, with the ratio less than 1:1 its a big no no…If we can get that under control…it can be a huge money maker at above 80% success rates.
I am going to keep on them and tracking them when IV returns next week.
I am also going to dive into your IBF trades and start tracking as well.
I was worried about the price running through the stop trigger, but you addressed that with your timing. As long as I stay away from high impact news…I feel much better about he stop loss protection. Since the capital investment is so much larger, that protection is a big deal for me. Especially when you get into trading larger number of contracts. If you mess that up thats a lot of capital sitting out there.
If you have any other thoughts on how to get the risk down on the strangle let me know.[/quote]
Chaz,
As far as the price moving past a stop or getting you out at a bad fill price due to the market moving too fast: you are correct when you said avoiding news events and things like that, additionally of you trade less volatile periods like the 1:30 to 11pm and the 6pm - 3am you don’t have to worry about this too much as price will often move slowly enough through your stop to get you out usually no worse the $54 usually around $52, see my results i have my stop out prices on there.
If you are going to trade IBF’s over more volatile periods you need to set the stop inside the strike the more volatile the more you need to be inside the strike like when I did some on NG I had 4 ticks and that still was not enough i needed like 6 probably but usually when o did them on some of the other pairs i set it between 2 - 4 ticks and that usually works, like when I do the longer term ones. its a guessing game really as the the indicative lags and is highly effected by how fast or slow the market moves as you are noticing.
I do still trade news events with IBF’s from time to time but I do not use stops till late in the trade as I mentioned yesterday in one of my replies I do strangled IBF’s so if price runs away i have the strangle in there to offset some of the loss, the ideal situation when doing a strangled IBF is to have price shoot up hit your TP then retrace to finish inside the IBF but if the news is a bust you win the IBF and lose the strangle so you just about break even. I like to trade the news like this I had some good trades a while back, if you can find the 5 tick wide strikes you can sometimes find a strangle for like 6 per side $12 total and the best part is the strikes are only like 25 ticks away from current prices and as you know on some news events were talking like 50 pips of movement so this a $94 gain on one side, see my posts I have making like $200+ on one news trade if i was trading bigger contracts that would be a good couple hours! I do want to try strangled Iron Condors too!
