Loosing Day but should have been profitable, what am I missing?

#1

I thought I would enter scalps for 10 tic profit using 14 tic Stop Loss. I lost more than I won what am I missing?

#2

Here’s my newbie observation only because I was doing the same thing…

You are taking scalps well past the 1st one in a trend

No. 3:
“How many scalps can I take within a single trend? The scalps that are consistently profitable are the first in any trend. If you have a slingshot setup and then an elevator (In that order), they often will both be winners. If you have an elevator first, then a slingshot, taking the second in that series, i.e.,the slingshot, the instance of profitability is less. If you take a scalp before the MVP arrow appears, you can take an additional scalp after the MVP flips within the same trend.”

I’ve been told that the trend is the unbroken string of MVP Predictor Arrows. If you look at your chart it looks like you have 2 sets of predictor arrows being painted. You should turn off the Trend Catcher predictors & leave the MVP arrows on.

Also, without the time scale at the bottom and the price scale at the side on your screen capture it’s difficult to see if your trades happened during news releases and if the trades corresponded with Magnet levels which would increase the likelihood of chop around those price points. (Are the pinkish horizontal lines your magnet prices?)

#3

Yes the pinkish horizontal lines are my magnet lines

#4

Hi Shortcreeker - Here’s my “Monday morning quarterbacking” on your trades today. Hopefully others will comment in case some of my analysis is questionable.

Correction on the 1st entry - it was at 9:30 US market open & lots of price volatility.

One other note with a lot of markets… after a fast, large move (1 deviation in about 45 minutes in this case) expect a period of choppiness. If you didn’t get in on the primary move sometimes it best to just wait or move to another market and look for better trades. There were a few more scalps later in the session once the move retraced back up to & through Settlement.

#5

Hi bayport_bob, Thank you very much!

#6

Today’s trades ended up worse than yesterdays. I need some more help.

#7

Hi shortcreeker. I was hoping someone else would have responded to your trades by now. I’ll make some general observations…

1st chart: All of the trades were taken between 9 & 10 am. I know veteran day traders that won’t touch a trade before 10 am. However, that’s not meant to be discouraging, just that you need to be very selective and have a lot of experience trading when the US market opens with any system. This might be a good place to test using market replay and only sim trading the instruments in the 1st 1/2 hour to see if you can get consistent at it.

2nd Chart: Several of your stop outs happened when price was entering or leaving the settlement area right around the noon doldrums. Plus the 1 hour trend went outside range box so more longs at that time were low probability. Also the long trades were late in the trend without volume to help boost the price higher.

3rd Chart: Price bounced of f the magnet level and looked to be a textbook setup. BUT, right below it was the dreaded Settlement zone - Again! Try to look ahead where price needs to go after your entry to see if there is “clear air” for it to move the needed distance and if there are any hurdles, Also, see that there is already above expected volume to push it through the obstacles. Otherwise, step back and wait for the next trade because there will ALWAYS be the next trade.

#8

bayport_bob,

Thank you very much for your comments. I really appreciate it.