My results seem backwards

#1

I remember (or at least I think I remember) a while back when I first started watching some of the training videos, one of them said something to the effect of: one winning trade can offset multiple losing trades, so even if you have a number of losers in a row, you can still have a profitable day. My experience lately has been backwards (one loser offsets multiple winners), and I’m wondering if anyone else has gone through the same thing.

For the most part I trade NQ on the charts in NT. I don’t do anything with Nadex or binaries. And I’m using a strategy (is that the right word?) demonstrated by Lori in a video she posted on the forum where, when I have an entry, I go with 2 contracts. Stop losses at about 18 ticks for one and and 20 ticks for the other. Take profit on one contract at 10 ticks (to lock in some profit), then move up the stop for the second to BE plus 1 tick, and then trail that for as long as I can.

I like this method a lot because a quick move in my direction will guarantee at least 10 or 12 ticks, even if it turns around shortly after that. The only “problem” with this method is that a losing trade will lose around 40 ticks total (20 ticks on 2 contracts), so I need 4 winners to offset only 1 loser. I seem to be running into the case where a TBS will often kick me out of my second contract at BE+1 before it then turns back around and goes in my direction for a nice trend. Maybe I need to rethink moving my second stop up to BE+1 after I take profit on the first.

So when I get prematurely kicked out of that second contract, I don’t get the longer trend, and I’m left with my 10-12 ticks… which is great, don’t get me wrong… I am profitable using this method, but I feel like I might be missing a little tip that could help me be even more profitable.

#2

The ATM you are using is very flexible for most market conditions. Feel free to modify it to your liking. If you are more of a scalper then the setup you are using will lock in quit a few ticks in range bound and choppy markets. IF the market happens to take off from an entry you will catch some decent trends and increase you average expectancy per trade. One thing you could try is setting your second contract to pull to -10 once your first contract locks in 10 ticks in profit. This way your second contract will have some breathing room if the market decides to turn around on you slightly and then continue. If you get taken out it’s a wash, who cares, next trade. But, you might catch more trends that had brief retracements. Also are you leaving you stops at -19 and -20 when you enter? I usually end up moving my stops below the recent swing and my stops are usually 24 ticks each after adjusting. The bar length is 20 ticks but if you enter 3 ticks above, you will often need a distance of 23 or more ticks to clear the swing low or high. Food for thought.

#3

Good thoughts… thanks, ronin! I like the idea of moving the second stop to -10. I’ll probably give that a try and see how it works out.

As far as my initial stops, no I usually don’t leave them at -19 and -20. I’ll move them based on the swing high/low. I just set that up as my initial placement just to give me something to work with.