NG- Natural Gas

#1

Is there any way to possibly forecast if it is a good idea to get into a Newsevent trade, straddle, strangle, before the announcement takes place on NG or CL. Lately, CL has been a dudd and NG did not do anything today.
NG has not been as bad but CL just does not seem to move a whole lot. is there something that I am missing?

  • I posted, at least I thought I did, this question earlier today because I was not able to find the New Topic button. I was too zoomed on the website to not be able too see it.

Hope to hear from some one.

#2

Both the Wednesday Crude Oil and Thursday Natural Gas have been terrible in the last few months. (Previously, CL was my favorite because there was always significant movement, particularly with the Wednesday 10:30am News Event.) Well, both of them have been duds recently. They move up, move down, but, too frequently (depending on the chosen expiration), they settle in the middle. So, if you’re doing a Straddle, you lose on both ends.

What I’ve been doing recently is applying an Iron Condor or Iron Butterfly (the opposite of a Straddle or Strangle). It means more upfront money, but the chances of success seem to be higher. If you don’t want to do an IC or IB, set your early Take Profits to smaller amounts ($10-$20) when doing Straddles/Strangles to see if that works for you.

Practice in Demo for a period of time before going Live.

#3

D58DEC53

Thank you for the reply. I agree with your reply. CL and NG have been dudds.
However, I also notice more movement 30 mins after the News Event announcement.

I would have to look at my notes but I think it was NG that had a big move after. 30 mins plus, after the news announcement. I think as as many as 35 plus ticks. Enough to make a profit.

My point is that CL and NG seem to be moving after the fact.

I have tried to take profits at $10-$20 however the market price just does not move enough.

thanks

#4

If you’re right about movement 30 minutes after news event, try a longer expiration time.