Only 1 APEX In Crude So Far This Week?!

#1

Before anyone reads this please note that this is not designed to downplay the APEX Trading System. This is a question from a student trying to learn and master the APEX System. The following questions or statements are not designed to dilute the effectiveness of this strategy. It’s proven to work for others!

Let us proceed…

Earlier tonight I just decided to do some market replay on the CL and I noticed that there were little to no APEX Entries. There was only one APEX entry Thursday. So this means if one was only trading the APEX this week (specifically the CL) you would have not had a single trade until Thursday. Please take a look at the charts below:

Monday & Tuesday

No APEX - TradeNumberz’s library

Wednesday & Thursday

No APEX 2 - TradeNumberz’s library

There was a slight APEX formation on Wed but it was stopped out.

One thing I noticed today as Darrell was speaking in the chat room is that APEX is a trend system. Now if one looks at the charts above there were obviously moves in the marketplace but only a few moves fit the parameters and entry rules for the APEX MVP.

There was a statement made on some other forums and webinars stating that the market only trends about 20% of the time and the rest of the time its spent in chop or range. Of course this statement is relative to day trading. But as I look at the APEX specifically on the CL that seems to be quite accurate for the WEEK.

But even though there were not a lot of APEX MVP’s there were definitely some momentum scalps this week for sure. But this post is specifically about the APEX. The conclusion that I am drawing from all this is one would have not traded at all until Thursday if all you were trading was the APEX MVP on the CL.

Now I understand why Darrell instructed us to learn 3 trade entries/systems so we can have something to trade different market conditions. In the end it may be a good thing because it preserves capital but on the flip side the last thing I want to do is watch paint dry. No why I know the true value of volume.:o

The main lesson I learned from this is that its a must that I learn the 3 systems that Darrell recommends we learn in the training. A few may say that “well only one trade is good because it keeps you from over trading”. But as I stated before I am here to trade. I am not here to watch snails race. If that’s the case I’d go watch the movie Turbo. :stuck_out_tongue:

Hopefully things can pick up next week. Some say that the slow week is because of all the news and its also rollover week and a lot of big guys who move the market don’t trade a lot during rollover. But then again who knows!

Any and all comments both good and bad are welcomed here…

#2

CL uses 12 ticks bars, not 14, look here “http://apexinvesting.net/diagnostic-bar-size-and-settings/” for diagnostic bar setting.

It is true that the market trends a lot less than it is choppy. But not every market is trending everyday together, as not every market is in chop together. That is why it is important to get the system down, so the entries are automatic (muscle memory). Then you can get to where you can watch/trade accurately an index, a commodity and an FX pair. That increases your probability of catching a good trend.

Hope this helps…

Happy trading!!! Brad

#3

Hey Brad. I’m not sure were you got 14 ticks from. My charts are clearly trading at 12 ticks. I think you may have looked at my contract and thought it was the tick number.

Besides that I really think what your saying gives me some insight to how to use APEX effectively. For example when I go bank fishing and I only take one line with me it takes me a while to catch fish. But when I take 5-6 lines with me and have six lines in the water with good bait it increase my chances of catching a fish.

Case and point with this week in crude. Had I only traded crude this week and looked for APEX Patterns Mon through Thur there would have only been one trade. So I def understand what you mean when you stated : “That is why it is important to get the system down, so the entries are automatic (muscle memory). Then you can get to where you can watch/trade accurately an index, a commodity and an FX pair.”

I have been able to memorize the entry rules for each trade set up that Darrell recommends we learn in the training. He recommends we learn 3 which I’m sure you know of and I understand why now. Some times markets only give you certain set ups and if you only have one set up you wont be able to play until that set up is seen. So one can either watch multiple markets or learn different plays.

If a football team only has one play they will never win. And same goes for the trader to a degree…Thanks for your insight.

[quote=dca78_00]CL uses 12 ticks bars, not 14, look here “http://apexinvesting.net/diagnostic-bar-size-and-settings/” for diagnostic bar setting.

It is true that the market trends a lot less than it is choppy. But not every market is trending everyday together, as not every market is in chop together. That is why it is important to get the system down, so the entries are automatic (muscle memory). Then you can get to where you can watch/trade accurately an index, a commodity and an FX pair. That increases your probability of catching a good trend.

Hope this helps…

Happy trading!!! Brad[/quote]

#4

Sorry, my eyes were a little blurry this am!!!

The APEX system works, as long as we make the right trade decisions. When we “force” things or don’t follow the rules, we are probably turning a profitable system into a losing one… I did a test on TF and taking CORRECT trades, it made roughly $14k in 2 months with one futures contract (10 Nadex contracts). The point is that there are a lot of small losses, lots of small positive days and a good number of decent days. The real big winning days were the biggest chunk of the profits, but there were only a handful (2-4) in the 40 or so days of trading. So, risk management plays a much bigger part to make sure you are around to capture the big trading days.

What I am getting at ( I guess) is that we see those videos and those great charts where TF made $1000’s in a trading session and that is great. But the real beauty in the APEX system and risk management is that it limits your losses and lets your profits run, and it does it reliably.

So, personally, I will take the slow days as long as I know that when the big trends come, I am going to catch a big chunk. The real challenge is to make sure you are following the rules, because the rules work!!! Then, to overcome those slow days pick out some other instruments because the odds are that not everything is going to be chop one day, and you have something else to trade, CORRECTLY.

I really keyed on this after reading some of Van Tharp’s stuff, and I think I am going to write a forum post this weekend…

I like your fishing analogy and it works!!!

Happy trading!!! Brad

#5

“What I am getting at ( I guess) is that we see those videos and those great charts where TF made $1000’s in a trading session and that is great.”

This is what I believe to be my downfall. When I saw the training and observed those nice moves I was under the assumption that the market makes those moves on a daily basis. And this week made me realize how much of a delusion it was of me to think that way.

As a side note I will say that there were definitely a few momentum scalps available this week. So that may be a strategy that I need to adopt and master as well. But that strategy is a bit iffy for me because the volume adjust in the middle of those trades at times and that confuses me.

From what I have learned through this conversation I may just start tracking more than one market if I only want to trade the APEX. What you are saying makes perfect sense in the fact that not every market is going to be in a range all week or day. I’m sure there were trades in other markets besides the CL.

If you don’t mind me asking, how many markets do you monitor with the APEX at any given time?

#6

MoveMaker…I’m relatively new to APEX and started trading in earnest 2 weeks ago. I started with TF, YM and ES because I had a really small account. I made no trades in YM (I was using 26 ticks but am now down to 12 tick bars), a few trades in ES (10 ticks) and most of my trades in TF (at 14 ticks although you could also use 6 tick bars). I also was doing a lot of watching the paint dry so I added GC and CL. It’s really not too much to monitor and I made some very good trades in GC this week. Because YM, TF and ES are “sort of correlated” (big market moving days usually include all 3) you could just pick one index (I would pick TF based on my recent experience) and then add say CL and GC. These 3 should be easy to monitor, keep you busy and provide more trade trade opportunities than watching only one market.

Maybe someone else with more experience can suggest some other instruments that provide lots of trade opportunities. I will be adding a Forex data feed soon (hopefully next week) and will add a couple of Forex pairs to the mix. Darreal seems to like USD/JPY best.

jms

#7

I monitor a lot of markets but I have been doing it a decade and have a lot of monitors.

An indice (ie tf) a ag (ie zs) a energy (ie cl) a metal (ie gc) a fx pair (ie gj or uj) will keep you very busy. Definitely learn the various parts of elite. They are there for various market conditions.

#8

Hey @jmsnaders23!

First of all I want to let you know that I read your post and it was a very inspiring story. Big up’s to you for killing it the week you did. Seeing stories like that encourages me to keep focused and not give up. I read your post last week but never got around to congratulating you for your progress so I guess I’ll do it here. Nice Work!:cool:

One thing that dca78_00 stated was to monitor markets that don’t correlate which in return can give one a lot of set ups to potentially trade. So its interesting that you bring that up. Trading markets that correlate to much obviously wont give one much training opportunities so trading non correlative market will therefore give one more trading opps.

I don’t think the ones you listed should be to difficult to monitor so I will keep track of those this week and see how it goes. Keep up the good work on your trading. Looking forward to seeing more of your posts.

[quote=jmsanders23]MoveMaker…I’m relatively new to APEX and started trading in earnest 2 weeks ago. I started with TF, YM and ES because I had a really small account. I made no trades in YM (I was using 26 ticks but am now down to 12 tick bars), a few trades in ES (10 ticks) and most of my trades in TF (at 14 ticks although you could also use 6 tick bars). I also was doing a lot of watching the paint dry so I added GC and CL. It’s really not too much to monitor and I made some very good trades in GC this week. Because YM, TF and ES are “sort of correlated” (big market moving days usually include all 3) you could just pick one index (I would pick TF based on my recent experience) and then add say CL and GC. These 3 should be easy to monitor, keep you busy and provide more trade trade opportunities than watching only one market.

Maybe someone else with more experience can suggest some other instruments that provide lots of trade opportunities. I will be adding a Forex data feed soon (hopefully next week) and will add a couple of Forex pairs to the mix. Darreal seems to like USD/JPY best.

jms[/quote]

#9

great thread. thanks for all of the insights…