Predictor Close Rule question

#1

I took this screenshot today. I was watching NQ. This is a complicated couple of questions. Please read carefully.

1st Question: At 9:29 it started going down, but it did NOT get a chop filter confirmation until the 3rd bar, (which also had an MVP confirmation arrow). From something I heard Darrell say on one of his teaching videos, we are NOT suppose to get in on that trade because it did NOT have chop filter confirmation by the time the TC Confirmation arrow appeared. Is that correct?

2nd Question: Hypothetically, let’s assume it did have chop filter confirmation, along with that MVP arrow on the 3rd bar, and became a true down trend. Following the Predictor Close Rule, at the moment I took the screenshot, (the Predictor Triangle was at 4505.25, and the bar just closed and started a new bar at 4506.00), should I have entered a trade long there, or waited until it moved 2 (or 3) ticks above the previously closed bar? (keep in mind, it has already moved more than a few ticks above the 2nd bar which had Chop Filter Confirmation and a TC Confirmation arrow, but I was waiting for it to close above the Predictor Triangle, which it did). Do I have to wait for it to move a couple ticks beyond the previous closed bar AGAIN, now that it has closed above the Predictor Triangle?

Thanks

#2

Hello Shane, great questions. I believe Lori answered a similar question in the elite room this week (may even have been yesterday).

In response to your first question based on my understanding of the TC system rules, you could enter 2 or 3 ticks below the bar that lines up with the chop filter ( TC Short - red chopfilter, TC Long - green chopfilter). I believe Lori spoke with Darrel about entering after the TC has flipped and the chop filter flips a bar later, and it was agreed it was OK to take that entry once the chop filter has flipped.

In response to your second question, If you are stopped out at the predictor triangle after trailing on a trend and the price action has already moved beyond the normal entry point for the new TC entry point, then technically you have missed your entry. I personally never want to enter on bar that hasn’t closed, especially if I missed my entry point, I prefer to set my entry 3 ticks above/below the close of the current bar (using the bar range indicator) this way if the bar reverses and closes in the opposite direction, I’m not in a trade that wouldn’t have been in had I waited for the bar to close. Also, since I would have missed the entry for this TC, I would have waited for the next slingshot, elevator slingshot or a new TC opportunity. Let me qualify that last statement saying I tend to be more conservative with my trade choices and don’t try to force opportunities having been burned by doing just that in the past. It would not have been worth it to me to give back 14 or so ticks by being impatient instead of waiting for the next one especially if I had just benefited from a nice trend on the previous trade. To make sure I answer your question though, if you did choose to enter in the direction of the new TC, you would want to make sure the bar closes and enter 2 or 3 ticks above that to be certain the trend is continuing.

Finally, just know that there will probably be a variety of opinions on this type of situation from different traders on how they would handle this type of situation. That is the style element of trading. The first thing to master is getting your entries and exits according to the rules, then as you develop your ability to read the market (maybe you are using magnets, other indicators that give you a stronger signal for the new trend) you can make a decision that fits your style of trading based on your risk tolerance.

Great question, I hope I was able to help.

#3

Thank you timelord914 for that great answer! Very helpful.

#4

Thanks Timelord I learnt a valuable lesson that will help me with my entries something that I struggle with either getting in to early or missing the entry all together. I will practice setting my orders a few ticks below the current bar using the bar range indicator as you shared here. So if it goes against me I stay out of a losing trade but still have the opportunity for a good entry and trade if it follows through and executes the setup that I see as a potential trade based on the various rules for recognizing and entering trade set ups.

#5

Looks like TimeLord got it great job!

#6

Chop filter does not have to line up before the predictor flips there is no rule regarding this. When chop filter aligns you can enter. Many would say when all have aligned that is even better trade which is what happened in the case of the trade shown here. 2nd Question as stated on the rules when MVP happens on 3rd or fourth arrow your trailing with the predictor and we trail with the predictor plus a few ticks. If your going to take a reversal trade make it break the predictor before just gong long as in reality you should still be short on this trade at that point unless you are exiting at a magent level You should be plotting magnet levels and have deviations and ranges on your chart it will help. You will notice all room leaders having these on their charts in the rooms.