[Note the below is not a reply to any trader in particular but just a case study on the results brad posted and comments made in general for all to learn]
I definitely could see how it could not seem exciting. However, I traded iron condors for years targeting a 6% return a month with a great win ratio (phenomenal) and still these results are way better. Obviously we all want to make a lot of money per trade as we want to make as much as possible as fast as possible. But in reality the goal is to make some money consistently and allow it to compound and grow larger over time as then a little bit will actually become a whole lot. Also as position size increases (with appropriate risk based on account size) fees become less and less of a “expense” and this dramatically will increase your profit %.
Before I start - an important note. People often say I want to make 100, 500, 1000, 10000 a week what should i do?
I say try just making 10 a week from there its just a matter of multiplying your size.
If you can make an average of $4.00 a share/option/binary/spread,future, or forex after all fees incorporating all wins and losses. Then simply do 100 of them and make $400 a trade average. do 5 trades a day your making 2k a day 10k a week 500k a year. Don’t let small deceive you…
See the case study below.
Up front, yes, this is a short term test 1 week (but frankly we have many people consistently reporting consistent profits on MVP, new and experienced traders - though yes, not everyones experience will be the same due to multiple reasons, like following rules, times of day, instruments etc…).
One could go for larger profits and miss out on many trades that would have profited (or get trades further out that may have lost) one could also take on larger losses. The results show a moderately balanced Risk/Reward. Obviously, taking on more risk, or lower or higher win % could dramatically impact it over time. This is simply a case study to show the impact of why one may be excited about a small net amount profit for a single contract consistently.
And yes historical results are not indicative of future results all that stuff.
However, to do a true analysis of an acceptable reward one should analyze the full outlay of a large series of traders versus just a few and its impact over time so we will project the numbers either forwards or one could say backwards over the past year with the stats provided.
They provide a good example as they use multiple times of day, multiple instruments, a loss about as large as any profit (larger with fees added in), and profits ranging from $7 to $13.50 for a simple median average of $10).
Personal Note:
I would see several reasons to be excited. Main one, knowing Brad, he is consistently a profitable trader or at the very least does not have “bad days or weeks, as he manages risk well follows systematic rules” If he does have them he broke the rules, did not follow system etc… we are all guilty of this but this a rarity… He understands a little bit adds up to a lot if done consistently and he can do much more than simply 1 contract and he does more trades than just MVP (elite, news, hedge, other futures etc…)
He was simply sharing to let us know that it is working well for him… and he just quoted it in single contracts.
However, despite all that lets look at why this would be acceptable to excited about such results…
We will review 1, 20 and 100 Contracts Per trade
1 Contract Per Trade
Win/Loss Ratio
83% win ratio 5/6
Net Profitable On Week
Average Profit Gross $10 (With Fees $8.20) [Assuming Doing 1-10 contracts on fees]
Profits $8.25 = $41
Average Loss Gross -$12.5 (With Fees -$14.30 [Assuming Doing 1-10 Contracts on fees Entering and Exiting]
Losses $14.31 = $14.3
Net Profit On The Week $26.70
Return On Investment
(Not sure as we don’t have time stamps but at worst, he had 2 positions open at 1 time (potentially just 1 - he opened one closed it and opened another one on a different instrument and closed it)
Assuming max 2 different instruments at one time then the max invested was a little less than $155 at any one time
Therefore Return On Investment Over the Course of the Week With Max $155 invested at any one time (may have been much less) would have been
17% return in a week I did traditional Iron condors for years and was happy with 6% a month ROI obviously that was a long time ago but just to put it into perspective.
Taking It Out To A Year
So Averages of 300 Trades (6 trades a week only 1 contract no compounding for 50 out of 52 weeks a year)
300*.83= 249 Profitable Trades In Year
- $8.20 (average win (this is a good average win test case as he has ranges from 7 to 13.50))
= $2041.50 Profit
300*.17 = 51 Losing Trades In Year
- -14.30 (average loss (this is a good average range as its higher than any of the wins and in reality you may have larger losses - or smaller losses [ie i have had 1.00 losses many times on mvp})
= $729.3 Loss
Net with Fees on 1 contract 6 trades a week =$1312.5
On Max $155 invested at any given time = a
847% Return On Investment Over The Course Of The Year
(Obviously one could do more than just 6 trades in a week - one could do 6 trades in an hour or 6 trades in an evening which would multiply the results - depending on your net results either up or down)
(Again this is not compounding, not increasing position sizes in anyway, and assuming he was in 2 trades at one time at most he may have only been in 1 trade at one time)
In reality you would take profits and you would ideally be incrementally increasing position size over time to allow compounding.
Now, That is on a itty bitty account lets take it to a larger account one may be starting with a larger one or may build up to it
Doing 20 Contract Per Trade
Win/Loss Ratio
83% win ratio 5/6
Net Profitable On Week
Average Profit Gross $200 (With Fees $182) [Fees capped at $9 on entry and $9 on exit at 10 contracts)]
Profit = $182x20= $910
Average Loss Gross -$-250 (With Fees -$268 [Fees capped at $9 on entry and $9 on exit at 10 contracts]
Loss = $268x20 = -$268
Net Profit On The Week $642
Return On Investment
(Not sure as we don’t have time stamps but at worst he had 2 positions open at 1 time (potentially just 1 - he opened one closed it and opened another one on a different instrument and closed it)
Assuming max 2 different instruments at one time then the max invested was a little less than $3100 at any one time
Therefore Return On Investment Over the Course of the Week With Max $3100 invested at any one time (may have been much less) would have been
21% return in a week
Taking It Out To A Year
So Averages of 300 Trades (6 trades a week only 1 contract no compounding for 50 out of 52 weeks a year)
300*.83= 249 Profitable Trades In Year
- $182 (average win (this is a good average win test case as he has ranges from 7 to 13.50))
= $43,318 Profit
300*.17 = 51 Losing Trades In Year
- -268 (average loss (this is a good average range as its higher than any of the wins and in reality you may have larger losses - or smaller losses [ie i have had 1.00 losses many times on mvp})
= $13,668 Loss
Net with Fees on 20 contract 6 trades a week over a year =$31,650
On Max $1550 invested at any given time =
1021% Return On Investment Over The Course Of The Year (larger as fees capped as order size goes above 10)
(Obviously one could do more than just 6 trades in a week - one could do 6 trades in an hour or 6 trades in an evening which would multiply the results - depending on your net results either up or down)
(Again this is not compounding, not increasing position sizes in anyway, and assuming he was in 2 trades at one time at most he may have only been in 1 trade at one time)
Obviously again you would and should take out profits and also increase position size as you go… so now lets take it one more level up to 100 contracts per trade.
Doing 100 Contracts Per Trade
Win/Loss Ratio
83% win ratio 5/6
Net Profitable On Week
Average Profit Gross $1,000 (With Fees $982) [Fees capped at $9 on entry and $9 on exit at 10 contracts)]
Profit = $982x5 = $4910
Average Loss Gross -$-1,250.00 (With Fees -$12.68 [Fees capped at $9 on entry and $9 on exit at 10 contracts]
Loss = $1268x1 = $4910
Net Profit On The Week $6178
Return On Investment
(Not sure as we don’t have time stamps but at worst he had 2 positions open at 1 time (potentially just 1 - he opened one closed it and opened another one on a different instrument and closed it)
Assuming max 2 different instruments at one time then the max invested was a little less than $15500 at any one time
Therefore Return On Investment Over the Course of the Week With Max $15500 invested at any one time (may have been much less) would have been
39% return in a week
Taking It Out To A Year
So Averages of 300 Trades (6 trades a week only 1 contract no compounding for 50 out of 52 weeks a year)
300*.83= 249 Profitable Trades In Year
- $8.20 (average win (this is a good average win test case as he has ranges from 7 to 13.50))
= $244,518.00 Profit
300*.17 = 51 Losing Trades In Year
- -13.40 (average loss (this is a good average range as its higher than any of the wins and in reality you may have larger losses - or smaller losses [ie i have had 1.00 losses many times on mvp})
= $64,668.00 Loss
Net with Fees on 100 contract 6 trades a week over a year =$179,850.00
On Max $1550 invested at any given time =
1160% Return On Investment Over The Course Of The Year (larger as fees capped as order size goes above 10)
(Obviously one could do more than just 6 trades in a week - one could do 6 trades in an hour or 6 trades in an evening which would multiply the results - depending on your net results either up or down)
(Again this is not compounding, not increasing position sizes in anyway, and assuming he was in 2 trades at one time at most he may have only been in 1 trade at one time)
The above is not to promise any kind of returns or anything of the sort, we know better than that 
It is to teach you how to look at risk/reward and how a little adds up to a lot when done on a consistent basis over time.
It is to teach you how to look at risk/reward and how a little adds up to a lot when done on a consistent basis over time.
