Specific question on 20-min TC binaries

#1

I was trading the YM in demo account and so far was up $64, i was in a long trade everything was confirmed correctly.

I lost $24 on the trade, but if i had stayed in the trade i would have won.

During the trade there was a pending short while i was in the trade so i decided i would stay in the trade, because it was only a pending short, but after it was confirmed i got out. Then a more than a minute later i got a confirmed long and won $20, so my total loss i guess you could say is $4 for that 20 minute.

I noticed that the confirmation for the short after i got out wasn’t valid because the pending bar took longer than 3 minutes and didn’t exceed expected volume, so i know this is a mistake (something i need to keep an eye on next time this situation happens.

So my questing is: If this was a valid short should i have got out of the trade?

2015-02-20_1543 - dgaubatz313’s library http://screencast.com/t/SaYnu0gSg

#2

That is one of the first questions I had when I first started trading 20-min binaries, one of many actually. If it confirms the other way, do I get out? Do I put in a stop-loss or do I bail if it goes against me; and if i do bail, how far against me do I let it go before I bail? I did a lot of practicing, backtesting and tracking results. The answer for me was not to put in a stop loss and not to bail out no matter what. In my stats, it came back to win more times than it stayed in the wrong direction and lost totally and my profits were higher when I just rode it out. I feel that I need to take this answer of my personal experience one step further to say that I usually went in ATM and went for a $25-ish profit, so this is what my results are based on. If you have a different entry and exit strategy, test it thoroughly to see what the avg. outcome is for you. Best of luck!

#3

I would have stayed in if it wasn’t for the confirmation and i understand it wasn’t a valid confirmation.

The reason i question whether to get out if there is a valid confirmation against you is, because i assume the probabilities of it coming back in your favor is against you, because i’m sure Darrell made all these rules for confirmation knowing after testing that when there is a confirmed signal that the probabilities of it going that direction are in our favor.

I won’t get out if it goes against me unless it’s close to the dark zone, which is 1 minute for 20 minute, i think, correct me if i’m wrong. Darrel always stresses not to hold 'til expiration on binaries. Like you said more times than not if it goes against you it will come back, but i wonder what the stats are when there is a valid confirmation in the other direction of your trade.

I appreciate your information.

#4

Just wanted to share that i just lost $39 on two 20 minute TC binaries.

In our previous conversation you shared that ATM are better and i told you ATM is what i do almost every time. Well for these two trade i did OTM on two sells, one at 73 and the other at 87. I watched both of these trades and one ended up going up to $16 in profit before going against me and never coming back ( i use the $20 take profit Darrell talks of in the training), the other ended up going $10 in profit before going against me.

We know that ATM price moves faster so i know i would have won with ATM contracts. Good thing is it’s still demo.

2015-02-25_1531 - dgaubatz313’s library http://screencast.com/t/6h2E27w4SZz

2015-02-25_1532 - dgaubatz313’s library http://screencast.com/t/ICzbv7FU9Ep

#5

I wanted to share something again:

Trading 20 minute binaries with the indices i lost like 4 trades in a row. None of these trades exceeded volume, but were in the direction of the apex, one of these trades went 3 and a half bars in my favor, then boom went against me quick and ended up losing.

I was thinking about what i could do to get better and i thought maybe i should only go with trades that exceed volume, even if it is in the direction of the apex, but then i remembered; i watched the momentum scalping trades with binaries videos on the weekend.

Remembering the scalping videos i remembered Darrell talking about simulating ranges, so i simulated a 6 tick range for what i just traded and the other indices and noticed the one i just traded on all the long trades only had a potential profit of just over $10 on a 6 tick move, no wonder i didn’t get filled, i got all the way to $16 but needed another half a bar.

So after simulating ranges on all the indices there were two more trades i would have taken but didn’t because the potential profit on a 6 tick move was that same little above $10 as earlier so i stayed out.

Then i got a trade that had a potential profit of $38 on 6 ticks with 12 minutes until expiration, i took it and my take profit ($20) was hit quick.

Just something to think about.

I’m a apex trader now and i’m still trading demo, it’s sad.