TF reverse of reality?

#1

Hi,

So on TF this AM we see some reversals. I’ve got two snapshots here, one showing the AM so far and another closer up of the two trades that chopped me up a bit.

We see a reversal around 10, then a nice big slide down (but not to -0.5), and I did not recognize a BMX reversal. I’m thinking its setting up for a nice big swing. Enter long at 1126.5 @10:25, market reverses and I get out asap. 2nd valid short forms and I enter, seeing that we are halfwayish through the dev level and thinking this run has more to go down (BMI trending downish) I enter a short at 1124.7 @ 10:30, utilized the P stop exit. As I’m writing this I see it has reversed yet again, and I do not see a BMX reversal to act on.

Short little apexes and then it reverses appears to be the story today. AM so far: 2013-12-09_1040 - Doppelrock’s library

Closeup: 2013-12-09_1039 - Doppelrock’s library

Am I missing a bigger picture here. I know that there are Fed announcements today, also someone in the elite room told me the monday after NFP is tough to expect good results. This sounds like a style based interpretation to me, especially when I choose to simply trade the charts. But in looking at my charts I see valid entries, act on them, get burned twice in a row, makes me think my TF chart is telling me the opposite. Do I just need to chalk this one up to averages and risk tolerance? Any insight would be much appreciated.

As always, thanks for the help.

Rob

#2

There are no FED annoucments today (FOMC members is speaking but they are always speaking)

tip remember that it is often to better to buy the breaktout of the 3 ticks on choppier faster instruments like oil, tf gc etc… etc… (would have avoided that reversal entry

Also you need to refresh your historical data (make sure to do this every morning) as you did not have that first APEX the one at the bottom was the reversal apex so it was not a valid entry - and the apex reversed - also make sure your entry offset on the pattern indicator is set to 2 not 1 (on 6 tick+ bar sizes)

also on that short apex all the others where and stayed long which should have helped you not add on the short tf

that made all the difference - 1 small loss (on bmx reversal) then a bmx reversal - all other entries where voided

#3

Thanks for getting back so quickly!

Taking the first reversed apex was my problem on my 2nd trade @ 10:30 for sure, I see that now, forgot that rule. History data was certainly reloaded and my offset is 2. Funny thing is my entry at 11:24 does not show a vspike diamond like your chart does. I see the BMX reversal trade at 11:32, but not sure what is happening with your purple arrow, could you explain that one?

Also, could you please clarify/reword what you said above “tip remember that it is often to better to buy the breaktout of the 3 ticks on choppier faster instruments like oil, tf gc etc… etc… (would have avoided that reversal entry)”, I’m having trouble visualizing that.

I have trouble with style based calls like avoiding an entry because TF may show short while the other indicies show long. If my chart says it, I’m inclined to take it, I really like system rules without thinking in this regard. Now on the other hand if I do think about it, though the indicies tend to go together some of them might turn ahead of others if a reversal is coming, so how am I to know the difference or make the firm call other than by responding to what my chart says vs what style says. In other news, I’ve hurt myself by over thinking and not taking trades before (lost two or three in a row skipped the next only to miss a killer run), now with style I’m not thinking enough and hurting myself by not listening to style. I’m sort of lost in where to draw the lines here.

Thanks for being patient and helping myself and others to learn, I’m sure it can be frustrating sometimes!

Have a good one, Rob

#4

ine is not a vspike diamond it is me voidig an entry

purple arrow a small loss on a long after a bmx reversal got out of the long

ie on tf i will wait for it to break teh 3 ticks above the e (ie 4th tick - so the bar actally is closing up and doesnt reverse on me)

i trade with majority - if 3 incides pointing up and 1 pointing down im not going short - i may miss out - but who cares more often than not i will keep cash in my pocket - this is not gut style it is 100% consistent