The Best time to enter a News trade


#1

Today is 7-23-13, on 7-25-13 is the UK Prelim GDP report. Under the news trade calendar for this trade, you indicate to enter the trade early so to allow as much time as possible to hit the profit target. herein lies my question. On this trade the average move is 70 pips within 2 hours. But I assume, when you collected the stats on these, it is 70 pips measured from a particular point, and that point, I assume, would be measured from whatever the price is just before the report is released. If this is true, then I dont understand that getting in early would be beneficial, (other than getting better prices on the options, which is important I realize).

if eg. if the GBD/USD is at 100 say 6 hours before expiry, and you get in at 100. And also assume the price goes from 100 to 50 in the 6 hours leading up to the report and is at 50 just before report is released. Also assume the report is bullish for the GBP/USD, and it does indeed move 70 pips as expected, in this case UP, since the report was bullish. So now the pair moves from 50 to 120, it made the 70 pip move, but the problem is, you go in at 100, thereby only realizing a 20 pip move. What am I missing? (I realize the hypothetical prices I give here for GBP/USD are fictional).


#2

I do not say enter it early to allow as much time as possible - i say the more time the better - use the latest expiration to allow as much time as possible for it to move - the move is expected after the report not before it

70 pips is the range from high to low after the report.

Early is based on better price yes also lower implied volatility

Though not sure where you are getting 6 hours before the news? That is as early as you can enter it is not a suggested entry time.

If it moved as far as you stated then just take the profit before the news -


#3

I did not want to take up everyone else’s time on the elite chat room today, so I thought I coudl ask u here…

this is a part of our chat today…you had asked me what price did I get in, and I answered below:

11:59:01 {jmilauckas_-_Justin} EURUSD 1.3312 GBPUSD 1.5219 and AUDUSD .8996 11:59:14 {prospero:Darrell_Diagnostic_Trading} ok so right now you would be up atou 21 pips on the long eur/usd about 25 pips on the gbp/usd and 14 pips on the long aud/usd

I was looking at the charts when I was in these spreads and also looking at the current market column that shows in Nadex when u have an open position. The price in the current market in the open position section of nadex did not match the chart. Especially EURUSD. Also the current market price for each spread, wether long or short, did not match the underlying market. I understand this is the bid or ask price , depending if u r long or short, but there was really quite a difference, so this is the effect of IV. So I didnt know if the current market price shown woudl ever get close to the actual underlying, but I suppose it would have to at expiry right?


#4

This is premium. Time value accounting for amount of expected movement by expiration etc… It is simply a black scholes options formula.

Today was also unique as your trading right before a FOMC announcement and right after a GDP and ADP NFP announcement so IV will no doubt be higher on these days further increasing the premium. IV is Implied Volatility - aka Expected Movement - This is built into options price and is also extracted from it. We use it to develop our deviation levels every day.

Premium When a spread is ITM the difference between the underlying market and the spread price is the premium. On the scanner this would be the “breakeven distance”

If a spread is OTM then the risk is the premium as there is no instrinisic/real value just time value.

product is at 100.15

spread is at 100.00 to 105.00 with a price of say 100.25

then the product/underlying is betweent he floor ceiilng of the spread

There are 15 ticks of real intrinsic value - the difference between 100.15 and 100.00

There are 10 ticks of premium value 100.25 spread price - 100.15 underlying price

If the product was say at 99.95 on a spread of 100.00 to 105.00 with a price of say 100.10

then there would be no intrinsic value as the underlying is not trading within the spread

but there is 10 ticks of extrinsic time value 100.10 minus the floor of 100.00

This Extrinisic Value - AKA Premium - This is the time/volatility value. the more premium will be in the spread.

  1. The higher the implied volatility (ie right before FOMC),
  2. The more time till expiration,
  3. and the closer to a floor ceiling

The opposite also applies.

  1. So the closer you get to the center, Notice how the master spread the market is usually near the center is almost always trading right near the market price (less bid/ask)

  2. the less implied volatility, ou will notice say a night time fx spread (when its not international fed funds week) will have almost no premium in it - as there is say 2 hours till expiration, not much expected movement at night ie 6-8 pm etc…

  3. the less time till expiration the less premium their will be. Also notice that almost all spreads say in the last 5-10 minutes before expiration will be trading (so long as they are In the Money (the market is inbetween the floor and ceiling) at pretty much the exact same price as the market

So if you are right at the center or nearly right at expiration the price will basically be right at the market. Implied volatility has less and less impact the closer you get to expiration and the closer you get to the center of a spread. Y

When it expires it will expire at the settlement price of the underlying as there will be no extrinsic value at expiration only real intrinsic value which will be the difference between the underlying and the floor if bough - or the difference between the underlying and the ceiling if sold.

Now that your getting into them go back and check out some of the short spread videos - as you will learn a lot - the first time you are just getting your feet wet and a lot just passes by - then you get into them - see things like this and when you watch the videos - its like oh - ok that makes sense now -

Also to help open the spread charts along with a underlyuing chart and you will start to see the dynamics of how the premium grows or shrinks as it gets closer to futher away from the center, as time passes, etc…

Hope this helps ask more questions if you got em :slight_smile:

Darrell

[quote=jmilauckas]I did not want to take up everyone else’s time on the elite chat room today, so I thought I coudl ask u here…

this is a part of our chat today…you had asked me what price did I get in, and I answered below:

11:59:01 {jmilauckas_-_Justin} EURUSD 1.3312 GBPUSD 1.5219 and AUDUSD .8996 11:59:14 {prospero:Darrell_Diagnostic_Trading} ok so right now you would be up atou 21 pips on the long eur/usd about 25 pips on the gbp/usd and 14 pips on the long aud/usd

I was looking at the charts when I was in these spreads and also looking at the current market column that shows in Nadex when u have an open position. The price in the current market in the open position section of nadex did not match the chart. Especially EURUSD. Also the current market price for each spread, wether long or short, did not match the underlying market. I understand this is the bid or ask price , depending if u r long or short, but there was really quite a difference, so this is the effect of IV. So I didnt know if the current market price shown woudl ever get close to the actual underlying, but I suppose it would have to at expiry right?[/quote]


#5

yes thx DM for your detailed response…I have been “trading” for many years…but never day trading, (so I guess I have been investing, not trading)(and sometimes just outright gambling, but refused to admit it to myself) so this is something new to me…mostly I have played the ****ers game of buying options and losing my shirt, bought/ sold futures contracts (got started by the futures guy with the cowboy hat!!, LOL forget his name) and updated my charts by hand, before we had computer charting capabilities. But I have never had real success…so Im hoping this will work out…

Is IV always this high before news or is this just a unique and crazy week?


#6

This is a unique week - 2 GDP’s NFP’s FOMC its among the biggest news weeks of the quarter.


#7

Same here on the cowboy hat guy! :slight_smile:


#8

The Cowboy guy was named Ken Roberts and yes i penciled in daily info into the charts. His big deal was a 1-2-3 top and bottom which is a bottom, a reversal, a pullback that doesn’t break the bottom and then giddy up on to highs/lows. In other words higher highs and and higher lows for a bottom reversal and lower highs and lower lows for a top reversal. Oh, for the simple days of trading! LOL