Hello Everybody,
This thread was created so you can post any questions you may have in regards to the THT webinar presented by atrader2 on Sat. 12/13/2014, should you have any questions:confused: that did not get answered during the webinar please post them here and we will get your answers to you asap.
Best,
-atrader2
I just wanted to say thank you for all that attended the THT today and for all you nice comments.
I did want to say a word about news which I forgot to mention in the THT session, its very important to be aware of the news not that you have to trade it but be aware, like if you have a 3pm expiry you don’t want new being released at 2:40, now if you want to trade that news thats fine you can set something up right before the news and have an expiry sometime after that news.
Hopefully not well. Looking for MM mispricing to take either IBF/IC or Strangle/Straddle. Only reason for any of those trades
atrader2 Here!
Just wanted to disclose a change I have made to my trading since I did the THT on IBF’s, at the time I did the THT I was toying with how exactly to use stops on IBF’s and mentioned that if you get both sides on you can take the stops off, I am going to suggest something different at this time as I have been doing some record keeping and testing heavily on these IBF’s - Please see this forum link to see my weekly results on my IBF trading - http://apexinvesting.net/forum/butterflies-218/creekcourses-iron-butter-weekly-results-tracking-2607.html#.VJzcYXkA
I did want to clarify why my thought process was the way it was on removing stops, well for one the IBF is a risk reduction strategy when you get both sides on, however you only have $50 risk if you get the perfect 25/75 pricing (How often does that happen?? Not very) so that means your going to have losses of over $60 at times and that’s just way too much loss, especially when that could have been reduced to only like $25- $27 loss if a stop was used, now as you seen in my THT another member and myself have been working with some historical numbers that actually give you a percentage of success if you get a certain number of pips at a certain time, these numbers made me feel very confident and they still do but it hit me, this is still the market and just because you have a 87% chance of winning a trade due to historical data it don’t mean the market cant still stick it to you and trust me it will from time to time and if you take one loss of $65 or $70 that’s painful and hard to come back from, be smart and use stops all the way around, on one wing trades and full IBF’s alike, if you look at my data in the link I posted of my results you will see last week I only did 52% win rate BUT I did not have any loses over like $29 that’s how you make a profit only being right 52% of the time and it gives you more piece of mind to have stops in place, in additon the big question of well the trade could have won if there was no stop as price returned inside my IBF before exp is beinging to show that this does not happen that often, actually in my last two weeks of trading I had a total of 42 IBF trades 13 of them stopped out and the best part is ONLY 5 of them would have been profitable without a stop, now do you think I would have turned a profit if I had 8 trades lose $60+ a piece I think not!! USE STOPS - LIVE TO TRADE ANOTHER DAY!!! AND MAKE PROFITS BEING RIGHT ONLY 52% OF THE TIME!!
As you know if you watched my THT I am always trying stuff, use this as your guide -
This is exactly how I arrived at my decision to use stops all the time now I tried no stops, some stops, stops on just one wing trades, stops all around so just keep trying till it works better and then try to improve it more!
If you have any questions at all please let me know!!!
Best,
atrader2
Do you mean close the other side? If so not usually unless its way early in the trade, if not I let it run, I have not had a trade yet where I been stopped out on both sides as of yet. If you get stopped out and its its relatively close to your exp there is no reason to do that, however the one time you may want to do it is if your trading the EURGBP trade from 1:30 to 11pm as this spread is only 20 pips usually and that would have a better chance of being stopped out on both sides but when it trade that trade I do keep a pretty close eye on it.
Yes he does say he does that sometimes, however there is no reason to give away money of the thing is not even close to getting stopped out. As I mentioned there are certain times to do it, but do what makes you comfortable and test it.