Trading system idea and how would i backtest it?

#1

Ive noticed that lately the Dow has been up going into the close(4 pm) if you put a binary position on 20 minutes till 4.

How could you backtest something like this…

#2

Look at the average price of the strike you would use ie itm otm etc…assuming holding to expiration or closing when strike hit if otm

Then look at the past 90+ days on ym ##-## and see how many times it moved that distance and or stayed above it the calculate profit loss based on those stats