Underlying vs spread price confused


#1

So as I’ve posted before I am very new to all this and am obviously missing something as I’ve watched hours of video and read a tonne but still am not quite getting it.

My newest question (sorry) is about spreads and what I noticed this morning. I will try to post a pic showing it but this forum seems to reduce it’s size a lot to where it might not be visible so I’ll try to explain.

I bought a spread ITM on Gold between 1400.0 and 1450.0. It was at a loss until it started going OTM. At the time of the screen shot it was trading at 1397.447 which is below the floor of 1400.0 that I targeted and yet it was +40 profit? Why is that? I thought a spread stated that the trading price should be between the prices listed, esp. if “bought”; meaning it should go up from whatever price I purchased at to between the spread values to be profitable?

Once again I appreciate the feedback! JC


<img src=/uploads/db0876/1189/fda3b5b60119fb43.jpg">


#2

You did not buy the spread itm

The price of the spread will always be between the floor and the ceiling

You are confusing the underlying price with the spread price

For the spread to be itm on a buy the underlying must be greater than the floor

When you entered the underlying probe was not greater than the floor

Just look at your time stamp of entry then look at a gc 12-13 future

Gc moved up this increased the value if the spread

At expiration to be profitable gc must settle above the price you bought the spread

But before it the premium is there that is why there is value to begin with when its otm

Again the spread price is between the floor and ceiling you are looking at the indicative underlying settlement price

Please make sure your looking at underlying charts when trading

Also confused as to why you would be targeting the floor when buying this makes no sense

Have you watched basic spread videos under education Nadex spreads above?

Have you watched some advanced webinars I have done on spreads

I honestly don’t know why your confused beyond not knowing the difference between the spread price and the underlying price and I guess the direction?

My guess is your not looking at the futures chart as you should be and this is causing most your confusion but I may be wrong??

Screenshots

Search jing in forum

It’s free we show you how to use it for screenshots

Pleae post spread questions in the spread section under Nadex part of forum thankyou


#3

[quote=darrell] Also confused as to why you would be targeting the floor when buying this makes no sense[/quote]

My apologies for my ignorance and for posting in the wrong section.

As for the floor I thought if you are buying you are expecting the price to go up and hence the closer it is to the floor the more room to move up and stay within the spread?


#4

Don’t worry about posting in wrong area. I just try to let people know. We are working on improving navigation and more to make it easier to find the right spot. And I can easily move it I just let people know.

And never apologize for not knowing something - the whole point of the forum is to ask questions - im glad your asking… you have no idea how many people never ask questions and give up - asking questions means your thinking which means your getting it/will get it :slight_smile: I may have to ask some clarifying questions to understand your thought process

You are correct, the closer it is to the floor the more room is has to move up (but often the more it has to move to be breakeven also)

But still the floor would not be your target - your target would be ideally as high above the floor as possible :slight_smile: As targeting the floor means you would be wanting the market to go down (which you would not if buying)

The market does not have to stay within the spread. It can expire higher than the ceiling if buying. If it does you get maximum profit. Now if it closes below the floor you would have maximum loss.

If buying

Max profit = ceiling - bought price Max loss = bought price - floor

If inbetween floor/ceiling

P/L = difference between where you bought and sold (or where it expired if you did not sell before expiration)

You also want to make sure you fully understand breakeven distance when trading spreads. Many people think spreads are moving slow as they do not understand breakeven distance (difference between where the underlying is priced and where the spread is when you buy it)


#5

Darrell,

I just watched the video Nadex Spreads Made Easy. I am trying to understand spreads a little better. I understand the Max Profit, Max Loss part. However, similar to Binaries, if I let the contract expire and the underlying market price is Higher/Lower based on a buy/sell, do I make the profit based on that or what the “contract price” of the market? That is the part I get confused on.

As an example for binary if I “buy” for the Wall St. 30 to be above 17778 and it closed at 17801, I know i make the difference between my buy price and 100, so if I bought at $73, my profit would be $23.00.

However on Spreads, let’s say I did a “buy” of a spread contract for 17775-17825, and I got the contract price at 1778, and it closed at 177801, is my profit the difference between the 1778 and 177801, and not based on what the “contract” price was at expiration. Usually I see the “P/L” showing negative on the contract on the Nadex platform, but the underlying market will show it is above my “strike/contract”.

I am asking because usually with my binaries I will hold to expiration because I am winning the trade based on the underlying market. So it makes sense to hold to expiration. However with the spreads, I am trying to determine if I should hold to expiration based on the underlying market, or if it shows a “loss” in the P/L I should exit and cut my losses.

The way it was explained to me is that I lose because the “contract” price is not above where I buy, or below where I sold, at expiration.

This is the most real example I can give without a screenshot, as the markets are closed:

as an example I went long the YM at 17695 on the contract for 17650-7950, for an end of day contract on a spread. The market closes at 17801. The profit would be $106, however let’s say the “contract” for the “sell” side is 17690, that’s a loss of $5.00 based on where I got in at. So at expiration, if the trade is held to expiry, would I make $106 or lose $5? this was not an actual trade I made but the best example I could find based on contracts for the YM on Friday for end of day trade

Once I understand that part, then I can best determine if I should hold it until expiration. Usually when I demo trade the spreads, I set a profit target of say $50 for 2 contracts, and then exit, but notice that had I held to expiration the underlying market has exceeded the ceiling or floor,and I would have made the max profit based on my understanding. But I want to make sure I am understanding it correctly! :smiley:

Also I think that would be a great thing to cover in your next Spreads video, because for many that I have talked to about spreads, that seems to be the most confusing part, because the P/L shows a loss, but according to the underlying market they are actually winning and at expiration would still be winning.

The training videos are awesome and I appreciate all the hard work you and your team are doing! I love the scanner as well, it makes it easier to evaluate a potential trade as well!

P.S. Any updated training coming soon on implied deviations? I want to get a better understanding of that as well!

Thanks in advance,

Binarylonewolf


#6

fixed some typos in numbers you kept adding zeros :slight_smile:

if you bought at 17780 and it expired at 17781 you would make a tick ($1.00) (not inclusive of fees)

if you bought at 17780 and you closed it at 17781 you would make a tick ($1.00) (not inclusive of fees)

PNL negative your referring to is known as bid/offer spread. Its the difference of the buy and sell price. The spread price must move enough to cover the bid offer.

You state its above your contract strike. You are confusing strikes with price. Your strikes are the floor and ceiling not the entry price. The entry price is the price you bought the strikes 17775-17825 at.

To convert it to binaries that you got down it sounds like that would be like saying i bought the binary at 23 but eur/usd is above 23 23 is the price you bought the binary at not the strike price.

If you held to expiration then yes if the price was not about where you bought it (the settlment price) then that would result in a loss of 1 tick up to the maximum tick vice versa on a sell.

Your long example is correct on the 106 profit (when you say the market closes - i can only assume you mean the spread expires with settlement value of 17801) Bid offer spread is not paid if held to expiration it just settles at the settlement price as everyone buyers and sellers will have their contracts settled at the same price. in in this case 17801

I have no idea what you mean will you make 106 or lose 5 - if you bought at 17695 and closed (sold back) or it settled 106 ticks higher then you would make 106 ticks thats all there is to it. Profit is difference between where you buy and sell, sell and buy, but and settles, sell and settles thats it.

Spreads are not as crucial to close before expiration as they are not an all or nothing payout like a binary but variable payout (difference of entry exit etc…) however, also don’t let a profitable trade to become a losing trade just because you want to make $5.00 on a $100 profit and watch the market turn around and wipe out your gains…

Your P/L showing a loss again is bid/offer spread. Beyond that it is spread movement. Remember your trading an option not the underlying there is premium the move slowest when outside the floor ceiling strikes - about 50% at the floor ceiling strikes - and they get faster as they approach the middle and slower as the approach the top or bottom. So if you want to mirror the underlying market then use a wider spread. If you looking for a larger move and you want no stop then use a spread with lower risk closer to floor or ceiling but understand the market will have to move more towards the middle to see the spreads price change faster and faster in lock step with the market.

I have a whole long list of spreads webinars where i cover t his in a lot more detail under our webinar recordings spreads section but I also will be reviewing what i call “proximity” to the underlying market and how it impacts the spreads price tonight on the Nadex Exchange webinar.

I have lot of training courses you can take. I seen you have not taken any of the official courses that are free. Check them out so you can learn more about how we used the implied deviations within our systems. Over 70% of our content is not on youtube public viewing have to be in the site to access it.

[quote=binarylonewolf]Darrell,

I just watched the video Nadex Spreads Made Easy. I am trying to understand spreads a little better. I understand the Max Profit, Max Loss part. However, similar to Binaries, if I let the contract expire and the underlying market price is Higher/Lower based on a buy/sell, do I make the profit based on that or what the “contract price” of the market? That is the part I get confused on.

As an example for binary if I “buy” for the Wall St. 30 to be above 17778 and it closed at 17801, I know i make the difference between my buy price and 100, so if I bought at $73, my profit would be $23.00.

However on Spreads, let’s say I did a “buy” of a spread contract for 17775-17825, and I got the contract price at 17780, and it closed at 17781, is my profit the difference between the 17780 and 17781, and not based on what the “contract” price was at expiration. Usually I see the “P/L” showing negative on the contract on the Nadex platform, but the underlying market will show it is above my “strike/contract”.

I am asking because usually with my binaries I will hold to expiration because I am winning the trade based on the underlying market. So it makes sense to hold to expiration. However with the spreads, I am trying to determine if I should hold to expiration based on the underlying market, or if it shows a “loss” in the P/L I should exit and cut my losses.

The way it was explained to me is that I lose because the “contract” price is not above where I buy, or below where I sold, at expiration.

This is the most real example I can give without a screenshot, as the markets are closed:

as an example I went long the YM at 17695 on the contract for 17650-7950, for an end of day contract on a spread. The market closes at 17801. The profit would be $106, however let’s say the “contract” for the “sell” side is 17690, that’s a loss of $5.00 based on where I got in at. So at expiration, if the trade is held to expiry, would I make $106 or lose $5? this was not an actual trade I made but the best example I could find based on contracts for the YM on Friday for end of day trade

Once I understand that part, then I can best determine if I should hold it until expiration. Usually when I demo trade the spreads, I set a profit target of say $50 for 2 contracts, and then exit, but notice that had I held to expiration the underlying market has exceeded the ceiling or floor,and I would have made the max profit based on my understanding. But I want to make sure I am understanding it correctly! :smiley:

Also I think that would be a great thing to cover in your next Spreads video, because for many that I have talked to about spreads, that seems to be the most confusing part, because the P/L shows a loss, but according to the underlying market they are actually winning and at expiration would still be winning.

The training videos are awesome and I appreciate all the hard work you and your team are doing! I love the scanner as well, it makes it easier to evaluate a potential trade as well!

P.S. Any updated training coming soon on implied deviations? I want to get a better understanding of that as well!

Thanks in advance,

Binarylonewolf[/quote]


#7

Darrel,

I think I asked my question in a confusing manner. However I did demo some spreads and my question was answered via the demo trades that I took. I also watched the webinar for “Mastering Nadex Spreads Proximity and Common Misconceptions”. That training helped tremendously as well. I am planning to start attending the Monday webinars, as I was not signed up before for those. In addition I will continue to demo trade the spreads until I have my system in place.

I am working my way slowly but surely through much of the free information. At a glance it can be a bit overwhelming, however I am patient and will master spreads, just as I have gotten comfortable with the binaries.

Thank you again for such a great site with a ton of information!

Binarylonewolf


#8

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