What would you do if you were me? Big exposing post here on psych, emotion, and being at a fork in the road

#1

Hi,

I thought this would be the best place to field a question like this. It’s a basic one, “What would you do if you were me?”.

This is a risky post for me to make emotionally, but I sort of view it like putting my full account on the line. I thought I would reach out to the community, share my position, and see what comes back as I haven’t got anything to lose emotionally or in regard to pride/face. The Apex community is a big part of what makes trading here so great. The guys working behind the scenes are incredible and do all they can, but us out here are a huge resource and benefit as well. So rather than being all private and sheepish and a burden about I thought I’d see what you all might have to say :smiley:

About me:

I’ve been with Apex / Nadex since Feb 2013. In that time I have been eager to grow as a trader, and left my rather well paying sales job in Aug 2013 and have been working at this full time since. I’m open to criticism, always looking to learn, relatively well balanced emotionally, sometimes have a short attention span, collaborative, creative, determined. No solid background in trading other than this, sales, engineering/building, and adventure travel background in my career. 34 years old, well traveled, no family money. I’ve been “all in” with the Apex line of thinking and community/nadex, spent my savings and run up my credit trying to make ends meet while doing this as I am not making money, and am now at the end of my rope. I relate to this as my business, and now I am in a very tight spot.

A large critique I would give myself is that my focus seems to pinpoint certain elements or details that might not be the most effective at that moment, while at the same time I bounce around a lot. There is an animalistic reaction in me that forces me to look for another strategy or technique if I loose on the day. Many of the rules are very straightforward, especially momentum scalp and boomerang, however I find myself selecting incorrect binaries regularly, or not trusting my analysis of the system enough to pull that trigger and then the opportunity slips past. Because of this, I have badgered the team way more than is civil and they have been very patient with me in my questions for automated this or that as I want that extra confirmation of an unemotional program has verified XYZ so that I can then apply the 123 of style and “focus on the big picture”. I realize my spending so much time wanting this is a distraction.They have already given us the tools we need to absolutely kill it. I know this because I see it in the charts, I still fully believe in the systems, I just get something crossed between seeing it an executing it.

I believe in demo, however I need to make money daily for the next week. I realize that needing my trades to work is a tremendous distraction some would call a recipe for disaster, but that is where I am. I have a $300 account with Nadex only and can not put anymore money into it. I have put a total of $4500 into my account with Nadex. Rather than making large foolish trades, I would definitely classify myself as conservative/cautious to a fault, and have bought myself a sort of death of a thousand cuts type scenario. I placed 3 winning trades today which felt great, but then lost it all and more in the later part of the day, common. I do not remember the last net positive day I have had.

DM mentioned it in the webinar today, that people reach out to him that have a perspective where they “must” make money now. That is an unfortunate position to be in. At this point I view my position as either winning or not, it is what it is. I’ll need to leverage most of my account, and aspire to properly utilize the 5% rule, but not this week. I view the next week as a fork in the road. The “problem” though is that during this week I must make a relatively large amount of money compared to my account to go the direction I want to go.

I am leaving on a trip 7/18, that is my deadline, and I’m willing to stay up the entire time to make it happen (though I know how silly that is, lol) Out of 7000 some odd people, I realize there must be someone else in a sort of similar spot.

A more seasoned trader will probably be able to pinpoint my position exactly. I’m able to look at my mistakes and relate them to behaviors in other areas where I have more skills and think, “Wow, I must really look like an emotional, squirrly amature”. That in a dark sort of way is funny to me. Where I am a professional is my continued desire to improve, my belief in the tools is reinforced through the community so I know I am on the right track, and I’m very willing to change my behaviors to find success.

I realize feedback I might hear would be to A) stop trading B) get another job and let the 5% rule work for me over time C) demo until xyz D) be less emotional E) make shorter forum posts :wink:

However I want to rocket in a winning direction here and I know I can do it. I’ve read other’s stories of doing it. I see all of these great tools all around me, I am just sort of at a loss with how to execute using them I suppose. I see myself here for years to come, I just can’t really see how the next week or so will turn out.

As always, any feedback would be very much appreciated.

Rob

#2

1 do not trade 24/7 pick a time frame ex open outcry in us 2.pick 1 index to trade on and know it backwards and forwards 3 I hate binaries trade futures 4 use the Kelly criterion formula to determine your bankroll and what you can expect to make each day 5 use probabilities to determine drawdowns and gains 6. Back test at least 100 trades and give it at least 50?days to see if your system works

#3

Rob - if I could give you an outside perspective from what you have provided here, and from my own personal experience…

  1. Jumping from one strategy to another is death by 1000 cuts. You seem to understand that. A little tough love for you, if you understand it, do something about it. Find 1 strategy, spike striker, booms, TTPC, APEX MVP, whatever you like, and MASTER it. If you jump around you will lose, especially if you haven’t mastered it and can’t make correct trades. I have been posting lately about what is possible with just the simple entries on APEX MVP on TF. $18k in 6 months on 1 contract taking just basic entries correctly. One strategy, one contract, $18k in 6 months…

The reason I am sharing these back tests is because I jumped around a lot, much like you. Then I realized that that was my problem. I was jumping around so much that when I was entering a trade it was incorrectly. The APEX systems work, but you have to let them work. That means taking the correct trade (following the rules).

  1. Find whatever strategy you like (and think you can stick with) and backtest it for awhile (min a couple of weeks). When you backtest notice that when you follow the rules, you will have smaller losses and larger wins. That is the basis for all of Darrel’s systems. You might not profit everyday, but overall you will make money. The key is to making sure that you are following the rules, and not trying to force a trade… Backtest and prove to yourself that it works. Then you can get away from depending upon the results of the next trade. If you are putting all of your hopes/dreams/desires into the results from the next trade, then you will be disappointed. You have to be able to step back and see the big picture, some will lose.

  2. The idea that you want to rocket to success is a fantasy. If you haven’t done it by now, with a shrinking account isn’t going to make it any more likely. What I would challenge you to do is think a little differently. Instead of thinking how much you make or lost in a day, think this instead: did i trade correctly today? If you trade correctly the trades will work out. The massive wins (like the last couple of days on TF) will happen. APEX will get you your piece if you are trading correctly…

  3. If I could make a plan for you it would be this…stop live trading until you get back from your trip. You have way too much emotion to make good decisions. Instead spend the time figuring out what strategy you WILL stick with. Backtest it, master it, and then practice in demo. Then, when you get back from your trip, retest what you learned from your earlier testing and then go live only after you can ensure that you can stick with it and do it correctly. Once you have mastered one strategy and are profitable at it, add another strategy after testing and your risk levels allow for…

I hope this helps and I wish you luck. If there is more I can do, let me know…

Brad

#4

In reply to both of the above post

  1. Agreed that is impossible to trade 24x7 focus on instruments and a specific time. But his issue is not this so much as it is he is jumping from system to system to system without properly following those systems which basically guarantees zero consistent expectation of anything

  2. I would focus on yes 1 index but not limit myself to just an indice. Sometimes commodities ie Oil, Gold, Soybeans, sometimes FX etc… are moving. So depending on the system and strategy you are using it is wise to learn how to watch more than one market. But you can’t just randomly pick trades you got to stick with the market once you see its going do that one and any others that are behaving within the system you are using.

  3. Futures are great but you need more than $300 to trade them. Allen you may want to look at spreads as they are an incredible to hedge futures when day trading.

Regarding hating binaries not sure what rationale is behind this. For example I rarewly ever trade stocks as with reg T, day trading margin, and porfolio marginging the leverage is horrible compared to other trading vehicles. Are you lumping all binaries into the same category. Many do. I wrote a post on this here: Benzinga | Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals

We have many traders that trade Nadex Binaries specifically very well day in day out. Note they are completely different on Nadex than anywhere.

I have traded futures, forex, and options for years. When I found out about Nadex I wrote off the binaries at first and only traded spreads for about 9 months. Eventually, I started looking into the binaries for mainly the reason that so many people asked for help on trading them. I dove in and over months of studying them and putting together systems I learned that they are great trading vehicles but one has to have a proper system and understand the instrument and how to accurately apply a system to them.

  1. Kelly is more about what to risk and what bank roll is needed - but you have to have the probabilities working for you already to start using it - i have some information here: http://apexinvesting.net/forum/capital-management-44/3-money-size-management-models-1820.html#post5881

  2. To have probabilities, he needs to have the trades having a good probability - the issue here is not taking all the trades picking and choosing is breaking any probability model - before it can be plugged into fixed ratios or kelly’s ratio etc… the system has to be traded consistently

  3. He’s done this, he sees the systems work - the issue is in execution

To Robert…

We have all been in your spot. And I want you to be successful. Though I don’t believe its going to happen in the next 7 days as if you do it will be lucky. There are still fundamental issues as of this week that you have to address. Understand I was there before I could quit my job. The thing is before you quit a job you have to be trading a system consistently with expected probabilities. Otherwise you will throw good money after bad. This seems to be where you got off on the wrong foot. Many traders have done this have had to go back to working and then pushed through it.

In summary you need proper risk capital to trade and proper discipline. You need expectations that there is no “magic system” around the corner that money management and discipline to execute a defined system within the reality of market variations. You have to be willing to take the system signals and not pick and choose on fear as shown on the previous post you made where you took the 3 trades at the end of trends and missed the 17 profitable trades leading up to them. So you lost money when the system did fantastic and you would have a great day. If your losing all your money from 3 trades in 1 trade then your risk management model is not working properly your taking to small a profits and to large of losses. We have covered this before but your making this mistake again. If I win 90% of the time but make a 1.00 when i win and lose $10 when i lose then i lose money. You have to get this balanced out. You can’t give the market deadlines as if you do well it will ensure you don’t make them. So if that is the plan then save the money find the job and then take the time to save ujp a proper account size. Demo trade and develop the discipline to take the correct trades. This is not the “happiest” advice but there is no magic pill that is going to make this happen. The # 1 issue you have faced is following the rules again and again. You say you want the ABC rules but you yourself admit you don’t follow them. You need to get this down in demo first and then go to live and trade light and build it up.

As you know I am here to help and I know this is a very direct post. You are being very honest about where you are and I feel it is absolutely critical to do the same for you to help you and not candy coat it. Don’t give up and don’t have improper expectations either. We are here whether your trading full time or part time or just in demo :slight_smile:

Darrell

#5

To Darrell’s point 5+6…

I was like you, Rob, and switched around strategies sometimes different ones in a day…never really let the system work for me. Sure I made money, but I also lost money. It wasn’t until I took a break, did my own backtesting did I see that I was ruining all of the probabilities by jumping around…

I go back to the backtest on TF that I did. Just taking the simple APEX MVP trades, add ons and MVP Reversals it made $18K. The rules for those three trades are as simple as it gets. There is no wiggle room, no second guessing, just colors line up and go…

When I saw what was possible if I was consistent and correct, it helped me to stop jumping around and focus… When I started to get an urge to “try” something, I was able to squash it because I knew what I was absolutely giving up vs something I may make “if” it works out…

There are a couple of books I found helpful:

Van Tharp, Trading Beyond the Matrix Napoleon Hill, Think and Grow Rich

I would say that the mental aspect of this business is a lot harder for some people than others (I am absolutely 150% including myself in that harder group too).

Be realistic on your goals and continue plugging away at it. If you can tame the Mexican Jumping Bean Syndrome (Darrell can I trademark that?), trading is the only business that can provide you the freedom that most of us desire…

Brad

#6

Hi Rob et al, would just like to throw my 2 cents in.

First Rob, thanks for your post. Really appreciate the honesty and transparency. I’ve seen you in the pit less and less so was wondering was anything up. Also, thanks for at least laying it out on the line and not just up and quitting as I’m sure many have done…as even I have done in the past and have been tempted to do again recently, but I’m determined that I’m going to stick it out this time.

You and I are about the same age in the same boat. Hey…maybe it’s that early onset of mid-life crisis stuff [not sure what people do nowadays but first one to buy the BMW wins! Or maybe we should buy a boat! :p] Anyway, circumstances of why/how we got in the boat maybe a little different but the boat nonetheless is the same. And the answer to get out of the boat is still the same also: Follow the rules. In fact, I will share with you what I wrote to a trader just yesterday…

Thanks. I’m better now. Just thought long and hard regarding what I’m doing wrong, and the simple answer is I’m not following the rules. There is no rule that says enter 30 seconds before the 2 minute warning. Just an attempt to make some quick money which was wrong and stupid and I paid for it. And I’m not going to be a whimp and quit. Simple answer is to check all the desperation stuff at the door because the market doesn’t care, and follow the rules, which I’m going to start doing.

Following the rules: so simple, yet so complicated isn’t it? I just wrote that in one of my posts, and DM gave me some tough love on that post also…patience. So not following the rules + impatience = disaster. Just like 1 +1 = 2. I see that clearly now.

All the trading wisdom everyone gave is spot on so I’m not going to even try to touch that. I will say that you may feel “my circumstances motivate me to trade.” “I need money!” So I need to trade. But I’m learning that that is a very bad motivator and probably shouldn’t be a motivating factor because you end up making bad decisions.

So maybe you need to get some income coming in via alternate means (maybe a part-time gig) to take the edge off. So you can think clearly and not be blinded by the emotional but very real motivating factor. That is not quitting but just changing up your overall gameplan a little bit to get you on stable footing and out of desperation mode. We (including myself) won’t make money if we don’t learn to trade well. It’s that simple.

Don’t quit. You’re down, but not out. A setback is a setup for a comeback. Success is just failing forward. I’m sure with your sales background you know the things that you need to read and take in to stay motivated. Everyone has a warrior and a whimp inside them. The warrior fights and the whimp whines, complains, blames, and quits. Don’t let the whimp win.

I usually say “See you in the Pit”, but for you friend, I’ll say, Stay in the Pit! wait… why doesn’t that sound quite right… :confused: :wink:

#7

Rob, thanks for your honesty. I’m certain you have company. Keep in mind the vast majority of day traders fail. This is a fact, not trying to be negative. However, you’re right, there’s something different with APEX. They are competent and passionate about trading, especially the guy in charge DM. The passion and ongoing new methods sometimes seems overwhelming, especially to new traders or part-timers like me. I read a post referencing the number of strategies as trying to “drink out of fire hose.” A few times I was ready to quit. After a few sharp, direct and honest back-n-forth emails with DM, I took his advise to slow down and focus on one area. For me, I switched from binaries to futures. For me, easier to follow.

For what its worth, don’t give up, but adjust. Keep in mind, you’re making an investment in yourself. I don’t know anyone who makes consistent income by simply watching a few videos. I’m certain even the most senior traders here have blown through a few accts to gain experience. Nonetheless, you might want to take a break from trading, get some steady income coming back in, reload and stick with APEX group. I’m rooting for ya!

#8

If it helps at all, here’s what I did this past week. I haven’t been focused on one single method. I’d been jumping around, considering strategies outside of Elite, and not getting anywhere. So to “reset” my mindset I decided to keep things as simple as possible. No spreads, as I didn’t want to deal with proximities or expensive entries. So instead I used close OTM/ATM binaries.

If I found a potential entry coming up I would set it up ahead of time. Once I determined what the entry point would be I chose either the closest or the next closest OTM strike. If my entry was hit I’d set my TP at $15-$25 away and let it go. Quick, easy, and in the case of total losses it would be a small amount. I didn’t take the time to over analyze anything, just a glance at the clock and a quick decision on what a realistic strike would be and for what hour.

Taking a somewhat hands off approach to it helped me to refocus and regain my confidence. The gains were smaller than what they could have been, yet it was worth it as this helped me to get my head back into the game. Next week I intend to get into normal trades.

Slow it down, simplify, and go small if you have to. Let the system prove itself to you before trusting it further with this. And, I know from experience that this can be difficult, but don’t let losses get to you and don’t over think your trades. I know I still need work on that second one.

We all may have different motivations, but the system doesn’t care. It doesn’t care if you’re doing this for money or for fun. It only cares whether you’re making “good” trades or “bad” trades, and it has a tendency to let you know either way. Similar to a job actually. The boss doesn’t care why you’re there, just as long as you do the task you’re given. In this line of work your only motivation is the trade.

#9

If anyone is new to the community, I trust this thread will give you a solid impression of how supportive and realistic the community here at APEX is. This thread is a bit of an emotional one, but important one to share as we are all humans working in this, and trading can really mess with your emotions I’ve found. APEX truly is an incredible place to learn from and contribute to, and I’ve very happy to be a part of it. Lots of good feedback here. I’ve taken the past week to reflect and come up with a game plan which I’ll share just for the record, as well as some quotes from responses that helped to guide me recently. This combo of quotes would have been great guidepoints for me at times in the past, so I’m happy to have them now :slight_smile: They are truncated, but grouped together from the people who shared.

“Be realistic on your goals and continue plugging away at it.”, “You have way too much emotion to make good decisions.”, “Jumping from one strategy to another is death by 1000 cuts… Find 1 strategy, … and MASTER it. If you jump around you will lose…”, “The key is to making sure that you are following the rules, and not trying to force a trade… Backtest and prove to yourself that it works”, “When I started to get an urge to “try” something, I was able to squash it because I knew what I was absolutely giving up vs something I may make “if” it works out.” dca78_00

“We all may have different motivations, but the system doesn’t care. It doesn’t care if you’re doing this for money or for fun. It only cares whether you’re making “good” trades or “bad” trades, and it has a tendency to let you know either way.” raceturtle

“…not following the rules + impatience = disaster…”, “Don’t quit. You’re down, but not out. A setback is a setup for a comeback.” stsmith927

“I want you to be successful.”, “In summary you need proper risk capital to trade and proper discipline.”, “You have to be willing to take the system signals and not pick and choose”, “…truth is we are all a bit of each of these personalities…” (actual quote is something like that, I keep hearing it in my head from the webinar), “The # 1 issue you have faced is following the rules again and again.”, “Don’t give up and don’t have improper expectations either. We are here whether you’re trading full time or part time or just in demo” darrell

“My habit of taking profits too early comes from a way of thinking that is killer. I hate to lose what I have already gained in profits.”, “Entering Trades While Still Unsure Of Rules”, “One thing for sure that if you are losing a lot more than you are winning its not the APEX system. It’s most likely you. Now I’m not saying that APEX does not send out losing trades. It does! But most of the time the losses are the cause of something we are doing wrong. “, “Spend some quiet time thinking about what you may be doing wrong rather than thinking the system is giving bad signals. Self analysis can go a long way and really give you a clearer view of what you may need to work on.” movemaker

“I’ve started having some very poor results with my trading so I decided to start a meditation program a few days ago. I now meditate before trading, take breaks to do it and do it when I finally decide to pry myself away from my computers and lay down for a few hours. In just a couple of days, I am discovering that my results are a direct reflection of the development of poor habits” meowsekin

I’ll have a good two and half weeks to reflect on all this good advice, and look to see what and where I might be doing things wrong. My plan moving forward is rather direct, and I have a game plan ready for me to hit the ground running as soon as I get back from my trip. I will leave on my trip, enjoy it, and come back to an overlapping 3 tiered plan that I’ve set up to take care of my finances near and long term that allows for a primary focus on my trading. I will be able to focus on the advice above in a calmer perspective, and apply it when I come back in a matter-of-fact way.

Emotions: Life was telling me it needed more attention than my trading lately. Riding some roller coasters here. Big financial pressures, 16 year old dog dancing around the line of staying with us or going, my lady just left her work to pursue her dreams yesterday, big changes in family life (positive), leaving for a big trip out of town for over two weeks, and I finally proposed to my lady two days ago:) All of this coming to a head at the same time understandably impacted my thinking and ability to trade, which only increased the pressure and “need” factor. Setting out a gameplan that works and accommodates “life” has given me room to think objectively. This past week did not go how I had envisioned it with my trading when I started this thread, however it was one of the most exciting weeks of my life because of what is happening in it. I am excited for the future.

Plan: I have singled out Elite and momentum scalping as my primary focus, and have been demoing them with success. I have trouble with binaries. As much as I have worked with them, I still struggle in taking advantage of the gamma. This might be silly to some folks, but I have worked and worked and worked at them and I still miss being effective with them. My focus went to using binaries because of my budget. I have spoken with a prop group that was suggested and have been investigating them for the past several days, so far it is something that makes a lot of sense to me given my position, so I will be starting with them in their trial period when I come back from my trip. Futures with entries and interactions right on the chart makes a little more sense to my brain, tick by tick thinking, and the trade-offs of the profit split given the ability to trade futures and psych benefits of the differences in how I relate to risk are the key attractions for me. I have confidence I will be able to pass the combine period given my non-binary demo experience and with all of the support here at APEX. That process takes about a month before I can trade live, if I pass, so I’ve decided to take up short term work that will allow me to trade AM session on CL during the trial from open to lunch and work the rest of the day at my own schedule (TF is not allowed for trial). Also during my trial period I will begin a job search because I’ve determined that if I can’t make it through that trial period with the seemingly easy goals the prop group requires, then I should not be trading full time at this chapter in my life, and will “take a break” in the job world to get my feet back under me.

Covering all bases, being honest with myself, and I still see a strong opportunity to trade in a way that matches my ability and style of thinking, without forcing it. Looking forward to hitting the ground running when I come back.

Thank you for all of the support folks, invaluable. I truly appreciate it!

Have a good one,

Rob

#10

Great job Robert very proud of you.

We have setup a deal with the group your speaking of and will have discounts for apex members :slight_smile:

I will have it launched next week for everyone to take advantage of :slight_smile: