Expected Range Indicators
Finer points of Nadex 20 minute binary Stra
Did I do the P2 boomerang trade right?
How to get the boomerang 75% black dotted line in expected range indicator
It seems that much of the systems rely on pricing and volume expectations that are created by the APEX Diagnostic indicators. I assume these are derived by proprietary calculations / algorithms that you all have developed. My question isn’t: what is the algorithm. Rather, I am interested whether these expected price ranges and volumes are based purely on the 125 day historical information that is loaded into each chart, or if other info like known news events (not the news itself obviously, but the knowledge that such news will be released at a specific time) or the implied volatility levels for the day (or any other relevant data) are factored into the expectations?
Knowing the answer to what goes into the expectation calculations is useful when considering the expectation ranges surrounding things like non-regularly occurring (but planned in advanced) news events (like a Treasury Secretary speech at a annual business conference) or on-going news events like a conflict in Ukraine that factor into each day’s implied volatility levels of markets.
Thanks!
Yes we trade based on price action, volume, and expectancy including implied volatility.
Yes the calculations are proprietary in and of themselves but not black box as I do provide transparency fo what they are actually doing and why they do it and why we use it. Versus its my magical arrow type thing 
We use 125 days not because we need 125 days (we build that as a basic requirement to ensure all the indicators have the data they need. We use implied volatility, and historical volatility both in our calculations depending on with of the range indicators are being used. Depending on the frequency of the news report (ie oil inventory every Wednesday) and the IV associated with it will depend on how much it is taken into account versus a report that comes out say 1 x a quarter. Some of our expected calculations are pulling implied volatility which if increased do to news would in fact increase the size of that hour. You will notice this when there is a massive change in upcoming expectancy.
The reality is news or no news volume will tell you when the expectancy being broken is actual or just a pull back. Make sure to check out the boomerang course under education to see how we put these pieces together.
Most news like a planned treasury secretary speech at a business conference has little to no expectancy as even though they are market “super important on fx calenders etc…” in reality the majority of the time they have little to no impact. If they do surprise the market that will not be built into the IV and there is where you need to know it was a “bigger” than normal move and that the move is real (ie not just a little pop) when volume is confirming the breaking of the expectations.
To help you with this for news being released at a specified time we have the news trading plan (see news in top menu) (even if you don’t trade it it will help you know what is happening and when to expect specific news events and what kind of movement to expect for that specific news event. Its insanely accurate i poor about 10-15 hours of research into that little page alone every week.
Expected range - it is the expected movement from high to low - (orange bar) - then it also plots the channels - which is that same expected move from open to high and from open to low - - then on the lower histogram it is showing the actual range - from high to low - so red is how far is is retraced from the low - and green it is how far it has retraced from the high
deviations work the same way
So does expected range close to close (though we don’t really measure high to low on close to close as it is not needed)
DM, I’m confused on this indicator. And I need to understand it so I can do classic booms at night. I am confused on the colors on the histogram. If red is how far of retracement from low, it would be going up…so why red? If you’re using red as a future signal to sell, then wouldn’t your entry be too early when 75% is reached? Unless you’re indicating it has retraced from the low, and low is red…
Using this on the classic boomerang OTM sub system rules, it seems to me if the green reaches 75% (meaning it has retraced from high to low), then you want to sell and if the red reaches 75% (meaning it has retraced from low to high) then you want to buy…but that seems counterintuitive to me.
Not sure if I’m looking for the colors to be a forward-looking signal or if they are indicating where the market is at that moment.
Red = how far the market has retraced from the low of the lowest bar in that hour (if using 60 min) [if it has retraced from the low that means it is going up (aka retracing from low) if it goes up the expected move etc… then it is going to go back down (hence the red rising as it is getting more and more “overbought which is a sell signal”
Ie as you stated: “If you’re using red as a future signal to sell,”
Green = how far the market has retraced from the high of the highest bar in that hour (if using 60 min) [if it has retraced from the high that means it is going down (aka retracing from high) if it goes down the expected move etc… then it is going to go back up (hence the green rising as it is getting more and more “oversold which is a buy signal”
We do the same thing on the deviation indicator
when the indicator is green you would only be doing a buy on a classic
when the indicator is red you would only be doing a sell on a classic
Look about 12 minutes into the video
Asked about to early at 75% - maybe review classic boom rules and post in boom forum as this is a thread about the indciator which can be used on dozens of systems. But in summary for this post boom classic entry is at 75% choosing a ITM binary that is at 100% of the high to the low of that hour.
You state “Using this on the classic boomerang OTM sub system rules, it seems to me if the green reaches 75% (meaning it has retraced from high to low), then you want to sell and if the red reaches 75% (meaning it has retraced from low to high) then you want to buy…but that seems counterintuitive to me.”
So you think its counterintuitive to have when green reaches 75% to buy - you think if the green signal reaches the trigger it should be a sell? This is confusing as all get out when its green i should sell does not make sense.
If it has retraced from the high to the low that is a down move that should signal a buy hence green.
And you think if red reaches 75% trigger it shoudl be a buy - you think the red signal should trigger a buy? this is confusing when its red i should buy does not make sense.
If it has retraced from the low to the high that is a down move that should signal a sell hence red.
One of the biggest mistakes people made is how do i know the trend and know when to do a p2 reversal (boomerang classic) and what direction to go in.
It is where the market is at at that moment which is forward looking - ie its moved down 75% from the high the forward looking part is it will stay flat or move back up (green) etc…
This make this SUPER easy. Your making it harder than it is green means (if signal lines up) buy red means (if signal lines up) sell keep it simple. There is nothing more to it than that I don’t know how much easier I can make it.
Unless the questions is about the indicator in general. Please reply to any questions about this in the boom thread. If you have indicator only questions post them here. But if you want to know how to apply it to a specific system to keep information in one place lets keep the thread in the system for that.
Ok so here is the way I am going to remember the histogram colors–Red to me means (Borrowing the “R”) “Release aka Sell that thing!” Green to me means (Borrowing the “G”) “Get aka Buy that thing!” I don’t think I can make it any simpler than that for me to remember. Of course, taking into consideration the other rules etc…
My two ticks on the topic…
What is the difference between hi to lo and close to close.? I wantto use expected range indicator in Richs butterflies strategy
Thanks
If you type in Butterfly or butterflies into the search tool of the forum on the upper right had corner you will see several posts and videos avail to watch
Drzed79 mentioned “Rich’s butterflies strategy” and I tried searching for that, but no luck. So I was hoping for a specific link from Drzed79.
A butterfly is a butterly
you buy a strike below the market you sell a strike above the market
use expected ranges to see where good strike exist compare to current pricing
If good strikes exist take the trades - if not dont and search for others
Set stops accordingly
Again iron condors are much better
Note i typed in Rich Iron Butterfly in the search magnifying glass in top right and a plethra of information came up as i expectd you will press on with them versus focusing on iron condors which are a better instrument to use for neutral trading.
I want to use this for news trades on NADEX again. Is the Expected Range indicator available for NT8?