Still don't get why I end up losing on Iron Condor on NQ

#1

Buy: US Tech 100 (Dec) 4840.0-4880.0 (4:15PM) @ 4869.6 Proximity: -18
Risk: $296

Sell: US Tech 100 (Dec) 4880.0-4920.0 (4:15PM) @ 4884.8 Proximity: +44

Risk: $350

Ceiling/Floor = 4880

I set my stop losses on break-even.

Stop loss Buy Side: 4864.6

Stop loss Sell Side: 4895.4

I Bought the spread at 7:08pm the previous night and I sold it at 8:27am the following morning @ 4870

Buy settlement: $259 (-$37)

Sell settlement: $352 (+$2)

None of my stop losses were hit and I still ended up losing money.

As far as I understand, as long as the spread is within the my range ( see attachment), I am more than a break even on my risk.

Please shine light on am I doing incorrectly…

#2

It looks like there was a lot of news released at 8:30, so more than likely that had an effect on the premium you were collecting.

However…

This alone probably reset much of the premium. Speaking from personal experience (sadly :sob:) It is just probably just better to skip trading the Daily Iron Condors overnight altogether, when FOMC appears in the news. :unamused:

#3

From what I can see, it appears you should have profited a small amount on the Buy and Sell. Depends on final Indicative price. Appears about +$6.90 on Buy and +$4.80 on Sell. using 4876.50 for close…Then minus fees . Max possible Profit on Sell is $4.80 [4784.8 (-) 4780= $4.80] Minus fees is $8.10 Profit

#4

How much premium was on each side when you placed the trade?

#5

with nadex condors seem impossible. Ill avoid them and stick to trading in the morning

#6

I remember it was around the $50 premium on each side.

#7

On this post I was using this iron condor as an example. However, It is not the first time it had happened where I ended up losing money on days where there were no news.

In addition, the downtrend started just about when I closed the positions. When I got up at 7am and checked the positions I was still not profiting.

#8

With NQ, you are gonna want to be looking for about $200 in premium for the overnight trades. Especially if you are looking to sell before the U.S markets open .

Also the break even stop losses wont really apply until near expiration. Meaning that if the market shot down, to your 4864.6 Buy side stop loss at say like 2am… That side would have closed out… but because there is still 14 hours until expiration for your sell side… You will still be showing a loss either until closer to the 4:15 expiration or if the market continues to really head downwards by a large margin.

For that trade, I think it was just a combination of a possible premium reset, and very little premium available at the start, that lead to the loss.

Try getting closer to the $200 premium when you open the trade, and see if that doesnt get increase you chances of getting a profit. (of course if the market is really volatile, that wont help)

#9

When closing an IC before expiration you always want to look at the current market price that nadex is quoting and not at the indicative index price. I believe that is were their is a confusion. A quick way to know if your in profit in the position is to look at the profit/loss column.

Here is an example:

#10

How did you calculate the break even?

#11

Easiest way I found is to use the Straddle/Iron Condor Calculator. located on main web site-Access Free Tools Tab-News. http://apexinvesting.net/straddlecondor08252014/straddlecondor08252014.htm

#12

Iron Condor Calculator

#13

I use the calculator on the website but I don’t get the same break even as you when I used the trade details you specified above. Could you take a screenshot of how you pasted the trade detail above into the calculator so I can see if I’m doing anything wrong? Thanks!

#14

also, do you set a stop trigger at 4864.6 on the 4840-4880 contract and a stop strigger of 4895.4 on the 4880-4920 contract, or is it vise versa? @craigmac @MATRIXBINARY373 @darrell

#15

Here you go…

#16

Short answer: Yes.

Long Answer:

4840.0 - 4880.0 = This is my BUY side so the stop trigger, if it goes the opposite side, i.e. LOWER and hit my breakeven price would be 4864.6.

4880.0 - 4920.0 = This is my SELL side so the stop trigger , if it goes the opposite side, i.e. HIGHER and hit my breakeven price would be 4895.4.

Personally, in regards to IC, seeing it only in words can be confusing. It falls into place when I can see it on the chart.

Therefore, If you look at my first screen capture you will see I marked the iron condor area in between two magenta lines and a yellow line which marks the 100% profit price right in the middle.

The upper Magenta horizontal line is where a stop trigger for a SELL is.

The lower Magenta horizontal line is where a stop trigger for a BUY is.

#17

ok makes sense. This is what I did on my IC last night on NQ, i set my stops at breakeven but I still lost money. I’m thinking it’s because they reset the premium because of the ADP Non-Farm at 8:15? Would it be better to enter these iron condors at 6pm and exit before the London open to avoid the premium resets? Whne do you guys typiaclly enter and exit these IC? Thanks in advance!

#18

Ideally if the premium is there… then yeah, enter as close to 6pm as possible.

Premium can change at anytime… Sometimes it works in your favor, other times not.

Do you remember how much there was when you entered??

Sometimes Ive had more premium at 3am than I did when I entered the trade at 6pm

My goal was around $20/contract, but I always tried to make sure I was out before the U.S markets opened

#19

There wasnt much premium at all cause I enter at 3:00 am after I got off work. But today I entered NQ at 6:05 and there was 98$ on each side. So I took the trade and set my breakevens. We shall see how the trade goes. If I lose money I’m gonna be so lost on what I did wrong😭

Ps. You used a lot of past tense, does that mean you stopped doing IC, or are you still doing them?

#20

@MATRIXBINARY373 matrixbinary